Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 569

May 9, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 9, 2016, 2:26 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2016, 2:26 PM CDT (19:26 UTC)
Expired: May 9, 2016, 4:00 PM CDT
In force: 94 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 42 counties

Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Nobles County, MN, Rock County, MN, Boyd County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Knox County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Lyman County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Tripp County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1087 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 47 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

148 
ACUS11 KWNS 091926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091926 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NEB...SRN SD...FAR NWRN IA...AND
FAR SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 091926Z - 092100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN BROADER LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH THE
PLAINS...AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS NOTED OVER WRN/CNTRL
NEB/SD THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND FAR
NWRN IA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION IS
LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE A WARM FRONT LOCATED FURTHER S ACROSS NEB/IA.
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MODEST DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON...MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MCD AREA. WHILE THE WIND FIELD IS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
HEIGHT ABOVE 1 KM PER KFSD AND KOAX VWPS...IT DOES STRENGTHEN TO
40-45 KT THROUGH 8-9 KM. THIS SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES TO POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING REDUCES THE SEVERE RISK.

..GLEASON/HART.. 05/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42469818 42789903 43380039 44230036 44439935 44359774
            44009632 43659568 43099510 42279565 42049720 42469818

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 4:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Audubon, Cass, Crawford, Fremont, Harrison and 7 more	53 min
May 9, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Adams, Audubon, Calhoun, Carroll, Cass and 15 more	6 hr
May 8, 7:48 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Blaine, Brown, Buffalo, Clay, Custer and 23 more	117 min
May 8, 9:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Jefferson, Saline, Seward	3 hr
May 8, 11:17 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Lancaster, Otoe, Saline and 2 more	88 min
May 9, 3:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Gage, Jefferson, Pawnee, Thayer	115 min
May 9, 1:46 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Fillmore, Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Nemaha, Nuckolls and 4 more	59 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.