Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 562

May 8, 20165 counties in Kansas; 29 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2016, 7:48 PM CDT for 5 counties in Kansas; 29 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 8, 2016, 7:48 PM CDT (00:48 UTC)
Expired
May 8, 2016, 9:45 PM CDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Republic County, KS, Washington County, KS, Adams County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Brown County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Clay County, NE, Custer County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Gage County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Holt County, NE, Howard County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Loup County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Rock County, NE, Saline County, NE, Seward County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Valley County, NE, Wheeler County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2016-05-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 104 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2016-05-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 48 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
104 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1219 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

549 
ACUS11 KWNS 090049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090048 
KSZ000-NEZ000-090245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB AND NORTHEAST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...

VALID 090048Z - 090245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
SOME TORNADO RISK NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB-KS BORDER VICINITY...WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151 CONTINUES
UNTIL 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL /OR REPLACEMENT/ WATCH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS
INTO SOUTHEAST NEB.

DISCUSSION...CELL MERGERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS HAVE LED TO AN
UPSCALE-GROWING LINEARLY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH A TORNADIC HISTORY PERSISTS ACROSS
EASTERN ROOKS/WESTERN OSBORNE COUNTIES KS AS OF 0045Z/745 PM CDT.
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS
AND POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY A PART OF NORTHEAST KS...WHILE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS/BOUTS OF HAIL WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB. THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...AND COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF
CURRENT WATCHES 150/151 TOWARD/AFTER 930 PM CDT. 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS FROM OMAHA/TOPEKA SAMPLED A RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIR
MASS...BUT AT LEAST A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB COULD
WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH. FARTHER NORTH...AN EPISODIC SEVERE RISK
MAY CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
NEB...BUT OVERALL UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT INTENSITIES SHOULD WANE THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL.

..GUYER.. 05/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40269816 40570020 42530016 42559853 41369813 41049740
            40599662 38949684 38959798 40029791 40269816

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 8, 9:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Cloud, Ottawa, Republic, Washington3 hr
May 8, 11:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cloud, Ellis, Ellsworth, Jewell, Lincoln and 10 more88 min
May 8, 11:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Cloud, Ellis, Ellsworth, Jewell, Lincoln and 9 more4 hr
May 9, 3:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary and 23 more115 min
May 9, 1:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 53 more59 min
May 9, 2:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 41 more10 hr
May 9, 5:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Barber, Bourbon, Brown and 48 more61 min
May 9, 2:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Cedar, Dakota, Dixon, Knox, Pierce and 2 more94 min
May 9, 4:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Boone, Buffalo, Burt, Butler, Cass and 37 more53 min
May 9, 5:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Buffalo, Burt, Butler, Cass, Clay and 36 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.