Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 564
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2016, 11:17 PM CDT for 16 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 8, 2016, 11:17 PM CDT (04:17 UTC)
- Expired
- May 9, 2016, 12:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 24 counties
Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Ness County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Republic County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Trego County, KS, Washington County, KS, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Saline County, NE, Seward County, NE, Thayer County, NE
The radar
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -331 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1074 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 69 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 179 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
677
ACUS11 KWNS 090417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090417
NEZ000-KSZ000-090545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...152...
VALID 090417Z - 090545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
151...152...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME
TORNADO RISK...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES 151/152 CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 1AM
CDT RESPECTIVELY...AND TEMPORALLY EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 150 IS
CURRENTLY VALID UNTIL 05Z/MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL TEMPORAL EXTENSIONS
OR PERHAPS A REPLACEMENT WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BEFORE 05Z/MIDNIGHT
CDT.
DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND
SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED FRONTAL CORRIDOR SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST
NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS THROUGH LATE EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON THREAT PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS...WHERE A NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN RELATIVELY CLOSE
PROXIMITY /JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST/ TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SRH IS MAXIMIZED /LIKELY 300+ M2 PER S2 EFFECTIVE SRH AS
SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS/. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME
SEVERE HAIL WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FARTHER NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS WHERE A MORE QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
..GUYER.. 05/09/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38990014 39699846 40189771 40999738 41139635 40489600
39359693 38819748 38329995 38990014SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 7:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Ottawa, Republic, Washington | 117 min |
| May 8, 9:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Ottawa, Republic, Washington | 3 hr |
| May 8, 11:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Ellis, Ellsworth, Jewell, Lincoln and 9 more | 4 hr |
| May 9, 3:35 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary and 23 more | 115 min |
| May 9, 1:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 53 more | 59 min |
| May 9, 2:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 41 more | 10 hr |
| May 9, 5:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Barber, Bourbon, Brown and 48 more | 61 min |
| May 9, 2:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boyd, Cedar, Dakota, Dixon, Knox, Pierce and 2 more | 94 min |
| May 9, 4:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Boone, Buffalo, Burt, Butler, Cass and 37 more | 53 min |
| May 9, 5:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Buffalo, Burt, Butler, Cass, Clay and 36 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.