Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 567
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 9, 2016, 1:39 PM CDT for 7 counties in Arkansas; 20 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 9, 2016, 1:39 PM CDT (18:39 UTC)
- Expired
- May 9, 2016, 2:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 34 counties
Howard County, AR, Little River County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Coal County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Delta County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Red River County, TX
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 686 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -97 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 620 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 336 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 6.0
The text
As transmitted.
398 ACUS11 KWNS 091840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091839 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-091945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH CENTRAL TX...WESTERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091839Z - 091945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT. DISCUSSION...STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS TRANSLATING QUICKLY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WINDS HAVE RECENTLY GUSTED TO 70KT AT GDP SUPPORTING LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN DRY LINE SURGING EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH VALUES NEAR DRY ADIABATIC. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE BREACHED AND TCU ARE NOW FORMING FROM CANADIAN COUNTY OK...SWD TO JACK COUNTY TX. LATEST THINKING IS SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AND SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD. EARLIER MCS HAS LEFT A RAIN-COOLED DEMARCATION ACROSS SERN OK AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED TORNADO RISK AS SUPERCELLS MATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DARROW/HART.. 05/09/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35149728 35629443 34809355 33319419 33289731 35149728
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2:36 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Crawford, Hempstead, Howard, Little River, Miller, Montgomery and 5 more | 7 hr |
| May 9, 5:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Hempstead, Howard, Little River, Montgomery, Pike and 4 more | 56 min |
| May 9, 6:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Fulton and 13 more | 97 min |
| May 8, 7:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more | 89 min |
| May 9, 2:39 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Jefferson, Johnston, Love and 4 more | 3 hr |
| May 9, 1:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Alfalfa, Canadian, Cherokee, Craig, Creek and 22 more | 59 min |
| May 9, 2:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Alfalfa, Blaine, Canadian, Cherokee, Cleveland and 31 more | 10 hr |
| May 9, 5:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cherokee and 35 more | 61 min |
| May 8, 8:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Cooke and 29 more | 89 min |
| May 9, 5:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Ellis and 25 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.