Mesoscale Discussion 563

Issued

May 8, 2016, 8:01 PM CDT (01:01 UTC)

Expired

May 8, 2016, 9:30 PM CDT

In force

89 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

318 
ACUS11 KWNS 090102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090101 
TXZ000-090230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 148...

VALID 090101Z - 090230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 148
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW 148 EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.  INCREASING CONVECTION IN
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH 02Z.  STORMS
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF LINEAR THUNDERSTORM SEGMENTS HAVE EVOLVED
FROM ACTIVITY IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WW 148 OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS. 
LOCAL EXTENSIONS OF WW 148 HAVE BEEN MADE FOR WISE AND PARKER
COUNTIES IN TEXAS...AND ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS MAY BE NEEDED AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE EAST OF THESE STORMS MAY LEAD TO A
DECREASING SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHORTLY...AND LENDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS INTO
NORTH TEXAS. 

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST HOUR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE NEAR/EAST OF EL PASO TEXAS.  THESE STORMS ARE
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION...AND THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KNOT DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A HAIL OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 02Z. 
BEYOND THAT POINT...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE
A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
DUE TO DECREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   30800351 31150312 31540239 32110160 32580104 32990035
            33289951 33389851 33529788 33769758 33779724 33539698
            33129714 32749755 32429803 31939861 31329947 30840011
            30560076 30160159 29970205 29930234 30140283 30320325
            30500353 30800351

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.