Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 532
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2016, 1:34 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 2, 2016, 1:34 PM EDT (17:34 UTC)
- Expired
- May 2, 2016, 3:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 122 counties
Bell County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Pike County, KY, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Swain County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Anderson County, TN, Blount County, TN, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Norton, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, Craig County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Greene County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Highland County, VA, Lee County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Fayette County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Summers County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 215 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -41 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 706 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 115 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 115 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
358
ACUS11 KWNS 021735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021734
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-021930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...ERN KY...SERN WV...NWRN NC AND WRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021734Z - 021930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION. MULTICELL AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION FROM ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY...WRN VA
AND SRN WV. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED MINIMAL CAPPING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 70S...AND CONTINUED HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE
TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND MODEST
/6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A BELT OF MODEST WSWLY WINDS
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELL STORM MODES AS WELL AS A FEW
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.
..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 36098448 37568268 38687993 38687831 37937774 37127797
36177982 35318342 36098448SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 9:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Campbell, Kenton | 114 min |
| May 2, 2:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Johnson and 10 more | 8 hr |
| May 2, 2:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bertie, Chatham, Cumberland, Duplin, Durham, Edgecombe and 23 more | 62 min |
| May 2, 5:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bertie, Gates, Hertford, Northampton | 5 hr |
| May 2, 6:34 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albemarle, Amelia, Appomattox, Arlington, Brunswick, Buckingham and 47 more | 56 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.