Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 485

April 28, 2016Cimarron County, Oklahoma; 38 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 28, 2016, 3:17 PM CDT for Cimarron County, Oklahoma; 38 counties in Texas. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 28, 2016, 3:17 PM CDT (20:17 UTC)
Expired: Apr 28, 2016, 5:15 PM CDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 39 counties

Cimarron County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Borden County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1215 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 433 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 426 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

689 
ACUS11 KWNS 282017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282017 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-282215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 282017Z - 282215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TX NWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO THE OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB LOW IN NW NM WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM NE NM SEWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
WEST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
F. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TX WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. DUE TO DESTABILIZATION...THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS NOW GONE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED FIELD
OF CUMULUS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR LUBBOCK.
CELL INITIATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NNEWD INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN TX PANHANDLE BY 22Z. THE LATEST
WSR-88D VWP AT LUBBOCK SHOWS A 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS WIND PROFILE
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -14C
TO -16C SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL. AS THE
STORMS GROW UPSCALE AND THE DOWNDRAFTS MATURE...WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES IN THE 23Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32550058 32520134 32910236 34230278 34800332 35300350
            36490312 36960250 36880177 36300101 35120042 33749996
            33149993 32550058

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 28, 6:26 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Roger Mills and 1 more	94 min
Apr 28, 3:46 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens and 13 more	5 hr
Apr 28, 4:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Donley and 14 more	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.