Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 464

April 26, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 26, 2016, 6:14 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 26, 2016, 6:14 PM CDT (23:14 UTC)
Expired
Apr 26, 2016, 7:15 PM CDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 26 counties

Fremont County, IA, Mills County, IA, Page County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Holt County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2016-04-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2016-04-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 198 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1053 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
198 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
394 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

525 
ACUS11 KWNS 262315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262314 
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS / NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 262314Z - 270015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LARGE-HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO THE SW OVER NERN KS CASTS
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER NERN KS AND SERN NEB WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BEING LARGE HAIL.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER-DAY MCS
--CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY-- ARCS NWWD INTO E-CNTRL KS. 
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD
POOL WITH PROCESSED AIR STILL EMANATING FROM CNTRL MO INTO NWRN MO. 
YET...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER KS PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LARGE STORM CLUSTER LIKELY RESIDE IN POCKETS OVER NERN KS
INTO SERN NEB.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS FARTHER E TOWARDS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/IA/KS/MO LOCATED TO THE
NE OF THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH.  AS SUCH...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH AND WIDESPREAD OF A HAIL RISK MAY DEVELOP TO THE NE OF THE
EXISTING WATCH.  WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT-TERM TO
ASSESS THE NEED FOR A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..SMITH/GOSS.. 04/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39089514 40409616 41199733 41639671 41149536 39419403
            39089514

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 26, 2:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Doniphan and 21 more117 min
Apr 26, 3:02 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Clay, Cloud, Douglas, Geary, Jackson and 14 more6 hr
Apr 26, 4:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Douglas and 13 more83 min
Apr 26, 6:23 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami, Wyandotte7 hr
Apr 26, 7:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Jefferson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte87 min
Apr 26, 10:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Labette, Montgomery96 min
Apr 26, 1:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay and 37 more115 min
Apr 26, 2:12 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay and 46 more7 hr
Apr 26, 6:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay and 46 more58 min
Apr 26, 10:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Camden, Carroll and 40 more117 min
Apr 26, 11:52 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Dallas and 35 more7 hr
Apr 26, 2:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Iron, Jefferson, Madison, Mississippi and 11 more2 hr
Apr 26, 3:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCMississippi, New Madrid, Scott6 hr
Apr 26, 2:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChase, Deuel, Dundy, Keith, Perkins115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.