Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 448

April 26, 201627 counties in Kansas; 18 counties in Missouri; 5 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 26, 2016, 2:18 AM CDT for 27 counties in Kansas; 18 counties in Missouri; 5 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 26, 2016, 2:18 AM CDT (07:18 UTC)
Expired
Apr 26, 2016, 4:15 AM CDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 50 counties

Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Thayer County, NE

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 45 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2016-04-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 748 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2016-04-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 30 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
748 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1375 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

101 
ACUS11 KWNS 260719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260718 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 260718Z - 260915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHILE THE PREDOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE
CLUSTER...A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY FORM WITH A
PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN
INFRARED IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO
AREA. TIME-SERIES OF TOPEKA VWP DATA INDICATES INCREASINGLY VEERED
FLOW WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL LAYER. THIS IS LIKELY SUPPORTING
ADVECTION OF THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CENTRAL
KS. WITH PERSISTENT WAA...CONVECTION SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STOUT EML. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
MODEST...SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH ALONG
THE GRADIENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE. AS THIS
GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 04/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   38949880 39609876 40089834 40359734 40339574 40209455
            40069373 39709334 39389317 38949310 38379345 38439405
            38719550 38789807 38949880

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 26, 3:02 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Clay, Cloud, Douglas, Geary, Jackson and 14 more6 hr
Apr 26, 4:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Douglas and 13 more83 min
Apr 26, 6:23 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami, Wyandotte7 hr
Apr 26, 7:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Jefferson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte87 min
Apr 26, 10:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Labette, Montgomery96 min
Apr 26, 1:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay and 37 more115 min
Apr 26, 2:12 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay and 46 more7 hr
Apr 26, 6:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Leavenworth61 min
Apr 26, 6:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay and 46 more58 min
Apr 26, 10:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Camden, Carroll and 40 more117 min
Apr 26, 11:52 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Dallas and 35 more7 hr
Apr 26, 2:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Iron, Jefferson, Madison, Mississippi and 11 more2 hr
Apr 26, 3:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCMississippi, New Madrid, Scott6 hr
Apr 26, 2:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChase, Deuel, Dundy, Keith, Perkins115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.