Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 405
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 17, 2016, 7:48 AM CDT for 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 17, 2016, 7:48 AM CDT (12:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 17, 2016, 9:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Falls County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, McLennan County, TX
The radar
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 536 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 153 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 383 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
192
ACUS11 KWNS 171248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171248
TXZ000-171415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171248Z - 171415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE MCD AREA. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AHEAD OF
A DECAYING LINE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX. THESE CELLS ARE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS UNIMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILE FROM THE GRK
WSR-88D DOES INDICATED BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1
KM...RESULTING IN SRH VALUES NEAR 200 M2/S2...JUST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING EFFECTIVE COOL FRONT. A NARROW CORRIDOR WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE MCD AREA FOR CONTINUED ROTATING STORMS AT LEAST IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT TOWARD THE FWD METROPLEX
BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE PER THE 12Z FWD RAOB. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.
..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 04/17/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31489854 32189775 32319725 32259677 31909669 31209691
30799740 30709808 30759859 30839883 31129878 31489854SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 7:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 16, 7:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Coke, Concho, Crockett, Fisher, Glasscock and 18 more | 93 min |
| Apr 16, 8:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 16 more | 63 min |
| Apr 16, 10:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 20 more | 92 min |
| Apr 16, 10:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more | 117 min |
| Apr 16, 11:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 27 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 17, 1:47 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more | 58 min |
| Apr 17, 2:01 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho, Eastland and 17 more | 59 min |
| Apr 17, 2:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell, Comal and 8 more | 88 min |
| Apr 17, 5:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Frio, Gillespie, Kendall and 1 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.