Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 404

April 17, 201623 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 17, 2016, 2:01 AM CDT for 23 counties in Texas. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 17, 2016, 2:01 AM CDT (07:01 UTC)
Expired
Apr 17, 2016, 3:00 AM CDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 23 counties

Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Jack County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 230 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-04-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 315 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-04-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 105 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
315 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-86 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1221 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
210 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
3.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

625 
ACUS11 KWNS 170702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170701 
TXZ000-170800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96...

VALID 170701Z - 170800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL TX EAST OF THE PECOS. FURTHER NORTH INTO N-CNTRL TX...THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING AND WW 96 COULD BE CANCELED
EARLY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN THE
EASTWARD PROPAGATING LINE OF STORMS FROM NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL TX
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING INHIBITION
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AND EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW OUTPACING CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE CONCERNS...THOUGH A FEW STRONG GUSTS MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. AHEAD OF THE LINE...A FEW MORE
ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUED TO THE WEST OF THE FWD METROPLEX. THESE
CELLS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. GIVEN THE DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT...WW 96
COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE 12Z EXPIRATION TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

..LEITMAN.. 04/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33029910 33459901 33459738 32969751 30699903 30339969
            30270099 30460156 30970089 32019987 33029910

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 16, 7:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more7 hr
Apr 16, 7:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBorden, Coke, Concho, Crockett, Fisher, Glasscock and 18 more93 min
Apr 16, 8:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 16 more63 min
Apr 16, 10:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 20 more92 min
Apr 16, 10:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more117 min
Apr 16, 11:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 27 more7 hr
Apr 17, 1:47 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more58 min
Apr 17, 7:48 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Bosque, Burnet, Coryell, Falls, Hamilton and 3 more87 min
Apr 17, 2:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell, Comal and 8 more88 min
Apr 17, 5:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bexar, Blanco, Frio, Gillespie, Kendall and 1 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.