Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 401
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 16, 2016, 10:43 PM CDT for 26 counties in Texas. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 16, 2016, 10:43 PM CDT (03:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 17, 2016, 12:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 26 counties
Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jones County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3416 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 63 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -20 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
438
ACUS11 KWNS 170344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170343
TXZ000-170515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...
VALID 170343Z - 170515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 94. NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE WW 94 EXPIRES AT 05Z.
DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS WW 94...WITH AN INCREASING TENDENCY FOR
CONSOLIDATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH. WHILE SOME TORNADO THREAT
REMAINS...GIVEN THAT THE SJT VWP SHOWS 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 300
M2/S2...INCREASINGLY LINEAR MODE AND TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOW TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPDRAFTS SHOULD BEGIN TO TEMPER THE TORNADO
RISK INTO LATE EVENING. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF
WW 94...WHERE BACKBUILDING CONVECTION MAY BE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED
RELATIVE TO THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT BEYOND THE 05Z
ISSUANCE TIME OF WW 94...GIVEN THE PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT
CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND PRESENCE OF AMPLE BUOYANCY AND
SHEAR FROM WRN INTO CNTRL TX.
CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL TX...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME
SURFACE-BASED...SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL EXIST
WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CONSOLIDATING MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS AND INCREASING CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE
NEEDED BEFORE THE 05Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 94...INCLUDING AREAS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
..DEAN/EDWARDS.. 04/17/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30900258 31440135 32340071 32790038 33170010 33399959
33409905 33369843 33079799 31799837 30989906 30659944
30430014 30370118 30320192 30320237 30560282 30900258SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 7:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 16, 7:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Coke, Concho, Crockett, Fisher, Glasscock and 18 more | 93 min |
| Apr 16, 8:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 16 more | 63 min |
| Apr 16, 10:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more | 117 min |
| Apr 16, 11:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 27 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 17, 1:47 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more | 58 min |
| Apr 17, 2:01 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho, Eastland and 17 more | 59 min |
| Apr 17, 7:48 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Burnet, Coryell, Falls, Hamilton and 3 more | 87 min |
| Apr 17, 2:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell, Comal and 8 more | 88 min |
| Apr 17, 5:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Frio, Gillespie, Kendall and 1 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.