Mesoscale Discussion 397

Issued

Apr 16, 2016, 6:14 PM CDT (23:14 UTC)

Expired

Apr 16, 2016, 8:15 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

842 
ACUS11 KWNS 162315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162314 
OKZ000-TXZ000-170115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 93...

VALID 162314Z - 170115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 93 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD BE ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WW 93...OR NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-40.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT...WITH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE TX PANHANDLE
HAVING A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT...THOUGH EVEN THERE THIS
PROBABILITY IS LOW.

DISCUSSION...THE GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED DRY LINE HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF WW 93 DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS RECENTLY FORMING NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY FROM GARZA TO SWISHER COUNTIES TX.  THE STRONGEST
STORMS...MOST SEVERE...WERE LOCATED IN DICKENS AND DONLEY/GRAY
COUNTIES.  THE INFLOW SECTOR FOR THE SOUTHERN STORMS IN DICKENS
COUNTY IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED STRONG UPDRAFTS...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KT CONTINUES TO FAVOR SUPERCELL STORM MODES WITH ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS.

THE STORMS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING AS THEIR INFLOW AIR FROM WESTERN OK HAS BEEN MORE STABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  RECENTLY...THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN WITH THE
STORM IN DONLEY COUNTY.  THIS AREA MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING POLEWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E EXPECTED INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ADJACENT
PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE DRY LINE WITH THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT.  WEAKER
INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT AND MERIDIONAL FLOW RESULTING IN
FRONT-PARALLEL SHEAR VECTORS WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT.  A
MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THESE
STORMS...THOUGH CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE COLD
FRONT.

..PETERS.. 04/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33010004 32980163 34050172 35240170 36130163 36970182
            36989994 33010004

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.