Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 396
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 16, 2016, 3:53 PM CDT for 12 counties in Texas. It was in force for 67 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 16, 2016, 3:53 PM CDT (20:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 16, 2016, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 67 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Coke County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Terrell County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 673 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -141 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 841 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 136 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 140 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.6
The text
As transmitted.
802
ACUS11 KWNS 162054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162053
TXZ000-162200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH WCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162053Z - 162200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND. TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND HI-RES MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE MORE ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SHORT TERM TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM WRN PORTION OF SCNTRL TX NWWD TO NEAR LUBBOCK WHERE IT
INTERSECTS A DRYLINE THAT IS LOCATED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR
AMARILLO SWD TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN POST DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT NEAR
FORT STOCKTON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF SAN ANGELO
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...BUT ARE MOVING ONTO THE COOL
SIDE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE AS
THE STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AS THE NEAR-SFC LAYER
CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC WARMING. GIVEN CAPPING
ISSUES IN WARM SECTOR...NEAR-TERM COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ISOLATED.
ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY WITH DEEPER ASCENT IS ROTATING THROUGH
BASE OF UPPER LOW AND MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS ZONE
OF ASCENT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE DRYLINE...COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST STORMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
BEFORE STORMS GROW UPSCALE.
..DIAL/HART.. 04/16/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30110238 31390186 32790134 32860038 32390016 31090056
29920150 30110238SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 9:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Castro, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hansford and 9 more | 83 min |
| Apr 15, 9:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Dallam and 18 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 15, 11:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Castro, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hansford and 11 more | 113 min |
| Apr 16, 2:22 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dallam, Hansford, Hartley, Moore, Ochiltree, Sherman | 53 min |
| Apr 16, 1:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 15 more | 85 min |
| Apr 16, 2:19 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 20 more | 9 hr |
| Apr 16, 4:49 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Borden, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crane and 25 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 16, 6:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 18 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 16, 6:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox and 2 more | 113 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.