Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 385

April 15, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 15, 2016, 1:38 PM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 15, 2016, 1:38 PM MDT (19:38 UTC)
Expired: Apr 15, 2016, 3:45 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 95%

All 27 counties

Baca County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Grant County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 91Apr 15, 1:55 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1416 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 195 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 293 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

752 
ACUS11 KWNS 151939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151938 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SERN CO...FAR
ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 151938Z - 152145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR MODES IS
INCREASING...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO
21Z.

DISCUSSION...A DRYLINE IS SHARPENING FROM SERN CO SWD ALONG THE W
TX/ERN NM BORDER. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGING OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED DRYLINE SOLENOIDS TO
FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
20-22Z TIME FRAME. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE
SURMOUNTED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.8 C/KM SAMPLED BY THE 18Z
AMA RAOB WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING
YIELDING ROBUST CONVECTION. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO 40-50
KT ORIENTED WITH AN ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL ALONG WITH SVR WIND
GUSTS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH -- ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNSET -- WILL
SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS WELL -- LASTING INTO THE EVENING
DESPITE THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS CONVECTION SPREADS
EWD/NEWD.

..COHEN/HART.. 04/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35270302 36970304 38080235 38040083 36780033 35120049
            34640191 35270302

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 15, 1:07 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Phillips, Sedgwick, Yuma	53 min
Apr 15, 1:25 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boulder, Clear Creek, Gilpin, Grand, Jackson, Larimer and 2 more	6 hr
Apr 15, 1:51 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Phillips, Sedgwick, Yuma	7 hr
Apr 15, 1:57 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baca, Bent, Kiowa, Prowers	7 hr
Apr 15, 4:47 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kit Carson, Yuma	88 min
Apr 15, 5:51 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca, Prowers	114 min
Apr 15, 4:13 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Bailey, Briscoe, Cochran, Floyd, Gaines and 7 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.