Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 348

April 10, 2016Harmon County, Oklahoma; 28 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 10, 2016, 2:56 PM CDT for Harmon County, Oklahoma; 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 10, 2016, 2:56 PM CDT (19:56 UTC)
Expired: Apr 10, 2016, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 29 counties

Harmon County, OK, Bailey County, TX, Borden County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Foard County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78Apr 10, 3:30 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2830 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 164 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 194 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

845 
ACUS11 KWNS 101956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101956 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-102200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL NM...S PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 101956Z - 102200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CONVECTION FROM NW TO CNTRL
TX...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE MAY EVOLVE. SHOULD STORMS BE SUSTAINED...SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS.

DISCUSSION...A LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AIDED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
FORMING JUST BEFORE NOON AND IS STILL CONTINUING FROM NW TO CNTRL
TX. THIS HAS RESULTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BEING SLOWED ACROSS
THE TX S PLAINS. AN INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM HAS RECENTLY
COMMENCED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. BUT WITH
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION BEING HINDERED IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION...IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF
INSOLATION BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP E/SE. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR WITHIN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREAT INITIALLY.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34190300 34710208 35030115 35100028 34849990 34589967
            34009962 33180041 32770110 32640179 32740222 33210297
            33550328 33860331 34190300

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 10, 3:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson	6 hr
Apr 10, 4:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 24 more	2 hr
Apr 10, 5:13 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Craig, Mayes, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa, Rogers and 2 more	92 min
Apr 10, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 27 more	5 hr
Apr 10, 5:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Craig, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa, Pawnee, Washington	6 hr
Apr 10, 6:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Greer, Harmon, Jackson	93 min
Apr 10, 5:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dimmit, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, Terrell and 3 more	67 min
Apr 10, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bandera, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Kerr, Kinney and 8 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.