Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 237
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 18, 2016, 1:57 PM CDT for 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 18, 2016, 1:57 PM CDT (18:57 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 18, 2016, 4:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Bandera County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Maverick County, TX, Medina County, TX, Real County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Val Verde County, TX
The radar
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDLF), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 38 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2117 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -117 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 542 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 89 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 117 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.2
The text
As transmitted.
140
ACUS11 KWNS 181857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181857
TXZ000-182100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT
RIO GRANDE VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181857Z - 182100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW UP THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY...AS WELL AS
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...IS MAINTAINING HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. AND INSOLATION BENEATH WARM/CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED OFF THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
RIVER /ABOUT 75 MI WSW OF DEL RIO/...BUT INHIBITION OTHERWISE
REMAINS STRONG FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW...IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIVER TO PROPAGATE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND CROSS THE RIVER INTO SOUTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...AMONG OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAS BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT THE STORM INITIATION COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.
IT APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF INHIBITION TO ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...AND AT LEAST LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..KERR/WEISS.. 03/18/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29570222 30220226 30880179 30439977 30539894 29889825
29249888 28760004 28109986 27099959 27099959 27620159
29570222SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 6:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Collin, Cooke, Cottle and 10 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 18, 9:51 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Cass, Delta, Fannin, Franklin, Grayson and 4 more | 84 min |
| Mar 18, 1:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion and 4 more | 59 min |
| Mar 18, 1:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 10 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 18, 3:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg and 13 more | 118 min |
| Mar 18, 4:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco and 31 more | 7 hr |
| Mar 18, 6:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco and 23 more | 55 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.