Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 229

March 17, 201613 counties in Alabama; 5 counties in Florida; 13 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2016, 5:01 PM CDT for 13 counties in Alabama; 5 counties in Florida; 13 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 17, 2016, 5:01 PM CDT (22:01 UTC)
Expired
Mar 17, 2016, 6:30 PM CDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 31 counties

Baldwin County, AL, Butler County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dale County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Pike County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Baker County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Lee County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA

The radar

The Ft Rucker radar (KEOX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2016-03-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2016-03-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -1 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2708 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

526 
ACUS11 KWNS 172201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172201 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-172330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 172201Z - 172330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPEARS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE
INTO SWRN GA.  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS THAT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS MS. 
LATEST MRMS DATA SUGGESTS HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IS NOTED IN THE MOST
ROBUST UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER WEAKER LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT ONGOING
ACTIVITY MAY NOT WARRANT WW ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW/GOSS.. 03/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31858766 31888384 30928412 30328788 31858766

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 7:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Butler, Clarke, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington and 7 more2 hr
Mar 17, 11:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Mobile2 hr
Mar 17, 1:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Washington9 hr
Mar 17, 6:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Washington53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.