Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 202
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 13, 2016, 1:01 PM CDT for 23 counties in Arkansas; 4 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 13, 2016, 1:01 PM CDT (18:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 13, 2016, 2:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 31 counties
Arkansas County, AR, Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Saline County, AR, Union County, AR, Bossier Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Bowie County, TX, Cass County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX
The radar
The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 781 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 141 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 157 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
616
ACUS11 KWNS 131802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131801
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-131930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...CNTRL/SRN AR...NE/N-CNTRL LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131801Z - 131930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
20-21Z. ALL SVR THREATS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL
/GREATER THAN 2 INCHES/ AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. TORNADO WATCH
LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS NE TX IS INDICATIVE OF
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
CNTRL OK. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED BEFORE 20Z.
ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR LIKELY ABOVE 50 KT/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR
THREATS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AND/OR
STRONG TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL SVR THREAT.
..MOSIER/HART.. 03/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33279128 32869203 32759271 32639372 32589423 32599452
32649475 33019482 33359459 33779417 34789249 34739158
33979120 33279128SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 12:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Howard, Pike, Polk, Scott, Sevier | 55 min |
| Mar 13, 12:57 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian | 6 hr |
| Mar 13, 2:10 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 37 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 13, 3:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 31 more | 86 min |
| Mar 13, 5:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian, Washington | 85 min |
| Mar 13, 5:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 38 more | 92 min |
| Mar 13, 6:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 40 more | 94 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.