Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 201

March 13, 20165 counties in Arkansas; 7 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 13, 2016, 12:35 PM CDT for 5 counties in Arkansas; 7 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 13, 2016, 12:35 PM CDT (17:35 UTC)
Expired
Mar 13, 2016, 1:30 PM CDT
In force
55 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%

Counties Howard County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Coal County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 243 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2016-03-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2016-03-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 141 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
781 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
141 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
157 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

976 
ACUS11 KWNS 131736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131735 
ARZ000-OKZ000-131830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 131735Z - 131830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON ACROSS
ECNTRL/SERN OK.  LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON.

DISCUSSION...EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SHIFTING ACROSS OK TOWARD
WRN AR.  COMPACT CYCLONE WITH WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT HAS DEVELOPED
OVER SCNTRL OK.  BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ACROSS
SCNTRL OK WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM.  CU
FIELD IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW
OVER PONTOTOC COUNTY AND ROBUST VERTICAL UPDRAFTS SHOULD MATURE INTO
TSTMS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AND LARGE
HAIL IS LIKELY.  IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

..DARROW/HART.. 03/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   33929503 34569636 35369615 35389472 34859378 34129358
            33669401 33929503

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 13, 12:57 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCrawford, Franklin, Sebastian6 hr
Mar 13, 1:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 17 more89 min
Mar 13, 2:10 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 37 more5 hr
Mar 13, 3:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 31 more86 min
Mar 13, 5:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Franklin, Sebastian, Washington85 min
Mar 13, 5:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 38 more92 min
Mar 13, 6:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 40 more94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.