Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 166

March 1, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 1, 2016, 3:43 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 1, 2016, 3:43 PM EST (20:43 UTC)
Expired: Mar 1, 2016, 6:15 PM EST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 5%

All 49 counties

Bell County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Madison County, NC, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, Buchanan County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Wayne County, WV

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 267 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1923 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 151 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 199 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

486 
ACUS11 KWNS 012044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012043 
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME SRN OH...WRN WV...ERN KY...ERN
TN...WRN VA...FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 012043Z - 012315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-OHIO VALLEY...CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND VICINITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
SPREADS EWD/NEWD. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
PROGRESSING EWD/NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KY/TN. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...IN
ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY TRANSITING THE
MID-MS VALLEY REGION. INFLOW FOR THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY OWING TO SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME POLEWARD FLUXES OF WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
IN AN EXTRATROPICAL-CYCLONE WARM SECTOR -- I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
AND 50S -- MLCAPE AROUND 100-400 J/KG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION.

THE PRIMARY FACILITATOR FOR ANY BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO EARLIER POCKETS OF DIURNAL DIABATIC
SFC HEATING. RELATED ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MANIFEST ENHANCED BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AT THE SFC AS LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS. SUCH POTENTIAL -- ALBEIT
LIMITED -- WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH CONVECTION-EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS/MESOVORTICES. THE PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY/DEARTH OF MOISTURE
WILL MITIGATE THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/CONIGLIO/HART.. 03/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   36948367 38008333 38668239 38328155 36528156 35838247
            35988417 36948367

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 1, 11:21 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Allen, Barren, Boyle, Butler, Casey and 18 more	84 min
Mar 1, 12:46 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bath, Bourbon, Boyd, Bracken, Breathitt, Carter and 32 more	2 hr
Mar 1, 2:00 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	McCreary, Whitley	90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.