Mesoscale Discussion 162

Issued

Mar 1, 2016, 12:46 PM EST (17:46 UTC)

Expired

Mar 1, 2016, 3:15 PM EST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

5%

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

739 
ACUS11 KWNS 011746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011746 
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-012015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 011746Z - 012015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO...AND PERHAPS A
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO...MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION CROSSING THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN
EWD-PROGRESSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AT PRESENT. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WITH A LEADING LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
LINE...IS TRACKING ENEWD FROM WRN OHIO TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY WILL ONLY UNDERGO
MODEST DESTABILIZATION...AS POLEWARD FLUXES OF LIMITED MOISTURE
OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROADER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS THE
AREA FOR MUCH SFC-BASED SVR-TSTM RISK -- GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE TO THE S WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
THE AREA TO FOSTER SOME INCREASE -- ALBEIT LIMITED -- IN BUOYANCY.
OTHERWISE...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL GREATLY MITIGATE DIURNAL GAINS IN
BUOYANCY...IN ADDITION TO MITIGATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING RELATED
TO AN EXPANDING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY.

REGARDLESS...VWP DATA AT WILMINGTON OHIO AND JACKSON KENTUCKY SAMPLE
APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR THAT MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. A FEW QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS...OR PERHAPS A
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO...MAY POSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED DMGG-WIND GUST OR TWO...AND PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO.
THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY...AND PAUCITY OF MOISTURE...WILL PRECLUDE A
GREATER SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/CONIGLIO/HART.. 03/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   37638458 38808418 39518297 39128202 37758229 37108282
            36928396 37638458

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.