Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 161

March 1, 201624 counties in Kentucky; 23 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 1, 2016, 10:21 AM CST for 24 counties in Kentucky; 23 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 1, 2016, 10:21 AM CST (16:21 UTC)
Expired: Mar 1, 2016, 11:45 AM CST
In force: 84 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 47 counties

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Larue County, KY, Logan County, KY, Marion County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Russell County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Bedford County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Macon County, TN, Maury County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Warren County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1488 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 213 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 190 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

472 
ACUS11 KWNS 011622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011621 
KYZ000-TNZ000-011745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 011621Z - 011745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND
MIDDLE TN COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN POOR ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S F /AT BEST/. BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
ALLOW FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION /A FEW HUNDRED MUCAPE/ AND STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 35-45 KT PER
REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5-7 DEG
C/KM /AS NOTED IN 12Z BNA RAOB AND REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ AND
COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL HAIL. GIVEN
THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ROBUST AND SEVERE HAIL IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 03/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37748634 37918585 37958550 37928516 37788491 37638473
            37278476 36708486 36258503 35968522 35748550 35548595
            35488656 35528719 35638747 35838750 36188736 36888697
            37408673 37608652 37748634

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 1, 11:46 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bath, Bourbon, Boyd, Bracken, Breathitt, Carter and 32 more	2 hr
Mar 1, 1:00 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	McCreary, Whitley	90 min
Mar 1, 2:43 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Elliott, Floyd, Harlan and 10 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.