Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1413
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 27, 2016, 11:01 PM CDT for 15 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 27, 2016, 11:01 PM CDT (04:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 28, 2016, 1:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Cheyenne County, KS, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 00:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 278 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -128 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3204 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -61 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted.
427
ACUS11 KWNS 280402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280401
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-280600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS...EXTREME E-CENTRAL CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 280401Z - 280600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL...AT
LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR INCREASING ORGANIZATION.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST KS/ADJACENT EAST-CENTRAL CO AT 04Z...LIKELY PRODUCING A
FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL. WEAK-MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
35-40 KTS OF NORTHWESTERLY EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAVE RESULTED IN
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED ALONG MERGING
OUTFLOWS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND...DESPITE CONTINUED NOCTURNAL
COOLING/INCREASING CINH...RESULT IN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND
HOW LONG SUCH A THREAT WOULD LAST...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE. IN THE SHORT TERM A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE
MONITORED.
..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 37930189 39030230 39520245 39780233 39980210 40020179
39940143 39830113 39720091 39340038 38900019 38120020
37790093 37930189SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 1:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Ellis, Graham, Lincoln, Mitchell, Norton and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 28, 3:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Cowley, Harper, Sumner | 115 min |
| Jul 28, 3:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay, Cloud and 45 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 28, 6:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson and 35 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.