Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1421
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 28, 2016, 1:59 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas; 6 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 28, 2016, 1:59 PM CDT (18:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 28, 2016, 4:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Decatur County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Graham County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Russell County, KS, Smith County, KS, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Red Willow County, NE
The radar
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 405 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -177 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 894 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.3
The text
As transmitted.
644
ACUS11 KWNS 281900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281859
KSZ000-NEZ000-282100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S-CNTRL NEB...N-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281859Z - 282100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING MCS ACROSS SW NEB IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES SEWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED TO COVER THE RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN ARCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY -- ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS NW KS
-- FROM JUST NE OF LAA TO N OF GCK TO JUST W OF HLC. AIRMASS W OF
THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS LARGELY STABLE WHILE THE AIRMASS E HAS HEATED
INTO THE MID 80S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AS A RESULT...A
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY EXISTS E OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
S-CNTRL NEB SEWD INTO CNTRL KS WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ONGOING MCS ACROSS SW NEB IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD WITH THE ERN PORTION OF THE MCS
INTERACTING WITH THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THIS CORRIDOR IS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE BETTER FLOW ALOFT BUT
RECENT UEX AND GLD VADS BOTH SAMPLED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-45
KT. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE ONGOING MCS TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES SEWD WITH INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS THREAT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/28/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39880083 40330130 40770046 40529957 39579802 39009793
38609834 38589940 39310018 39880083SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 11:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Finney, Gove, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny and 9 more | 119 min |
| Jul 28, 3:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Cowley, Harper, Sumner | 115 min |
| Jul 28, 3:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay, Cloud and 45 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 28, 6:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Butler, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson and 35 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 28, 10:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arthur, Banner, Chase, Cheyenne, Deuel, Garden and 5 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.