Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1213
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 8, 2016, 5:48 PM EDT for 55 counties in North Carolina; Cherokee County, York County, South Carolina; Brunswick County, Lunenburg County, Mecklenburg County, Virginia. It was in force for 57 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 8, 2016, 5:48 PM EDT (21:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 8, 2016, 6:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 57 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 60 counties
Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Clay County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Polk County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, York County, SC, Brunswick County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 178 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -224 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1340 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 142 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 113 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
678
ACUS11 KWNS 082148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082148
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-082245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL VA / MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL NC / UPSTATE SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 082148Z - 082245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME OF THEM
FEATURING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS /50-65 MPH/ RESULTING IN
ISOLD TO SCTD WIND DAMAGE.
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AROUND 2145Z SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOOSELY
CONNECTED MCS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU ENEWD THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND GAP AND INTO S-CNTRL VA. KMRX
AND KFCX RADAR IMAGERY SHOW 50-KT AND 30-KT 3 KM ARL FLOW. KROA
MEASURED A 52-KT GUST AT 2108Z. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
STORMS HAS HEATED WITH TEMPS AROUND 100 DEG F IN UPSTATE SC AND THE
LOWER 90S IN THE TRI CITIES AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED MORE IN
UPSTATE SC WHERE TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AROUND 30 DEG F AND 0-3
KM LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 9 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THE STRONG BUOYANCY AND
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WLY FLOW FIELDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...SCATTERED 50+ MPH GUSTS /LOCALLY 60-65 MPH/ ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CORES IN THE MORE INTENSE CLUSTERS/SQUALL LINE.
THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN ISOLD TO SCTD WIND-DAMAGE
THREAT AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
2230Z FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA.
..SMITH/HART.. 07/08/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 35958274 36397932 37137844 36567751 35437742 34958028
34968333 35058378 35458389 35958274SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 3:32 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Burke, Caldwell and 12 more | 88 min |
| Jul 8, 3:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alleghany, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry and 3 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 8, 6:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Anson, Avery, Beaufort, Bertie and 68 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 8, 6:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Avery, Caldwell, Davie, Iredell, Watauga and 2 more | 57 min |
| Jul 8, 7:36 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay | 24 min |
| Jul 8, 1:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Wise and 1 more | 59 min |
| Jul 8, 1:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington and 3 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 8, 3:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Tazewell and 4 more | 56 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.