Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1149

July 5, 2016Itasca County, Lake County, Saint Louis County, Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 5, 2016, 5:17 PM CDT for Itasca County, Lake County, Saint Louis County, Minnesota. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2016, 5:17 PM CDT (22:17 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2016, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties Itasca County, MN, Lake County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 101 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -223 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1191 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 207 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 250 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

125 
ACUS11 KWNS 052218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052217 
MNZ000-060015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 052217Z - 060015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NERN MN AND COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC SVR WIND GUSTS. THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN A LOBE
OF ASCENT PRECEDING A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS N-CNTRL
MN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD TOWARD/ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE...AIDED BY DIURNALLY STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS REFLECT ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S
AND MLCAPE IS RESTRICTED TO AROUND 500-1500 J/KG. REGARDLESS...THE
DLH VWP SAMPLES DEEP AND MODERATE...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY/WLY
WINDS THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER THAT WILL CONTINUE FACILITATING A
FAST...EWD-SPREADING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO
MARGINALIZE THE OVERALL SVR RISK...WITH THIS RISK POTENTIALLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR E OF A WWD SPREADING
LAKE-SUPERIOR LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARY W OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

..COHEN/GUYER.. 07/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

LAT...LON   47189427 47839360 47999228 47869115 47339133 46949204
            46919390 47189427

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 8:29 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Big Stone, Clay, Clearwater, Grant, Kittson and 12 more	91 min
Jul 4, 11:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chippewa, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle, Redwood, Renville, Stevens and 2 more	93 min
Jul 5, 1:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Carver, Chippewa, Douglas and 15 more	56 min
Jul 5, 2:06 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Benton, Big Stone, Brown, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Douglas and 24 more	6 hr
Jul 5, 2:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Jackson, Murray, Nobles, Pipestone, Rock	63 min
Jul 5, 3:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Jackson, Nobles, Pipestone, Rock	7 hr
Jul 5, 4:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anoka, Blue Earth, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Dodge and 19 more	7 hr
Jul 5, 5:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Brown, Carver, Chippewa and 30 more	97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.