Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1139

July 4, 20168 counties in Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 4, 2016, 11:57 PM CDT for 8 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2016, 11:57 PM CDT (04:57 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2016, 1:30 AM CDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Chippewa County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1247 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 111 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

969 
ACUS11 KWNS 050458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050457 
MNZ000-050630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 050457Z - 050630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A STRENGTHENING TSTM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BIG STONE AND STEPHENS COUNTY IN FAR W-CNTRL MN.
SOME INCREASED FORWARD MOTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN RECENT SCAN WITH A
TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE LIKELY ONGOING. DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
FROM 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG/ AND MODERATE SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 45-50 KT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-55 KT/. AIDED BY
WARM-AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION...THIS KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PERSISTENCE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY BECOMES
TOO HOSTILE. IN ALL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..MOSIER/GUYER.. 07/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45659563 45499521 45159479 44759448 44329469 44259540
            44799628 45299637 45679593 45659563

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 8:29 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Big Stone, Clay, Clearwater, Grant, Kittson and 12 more	91 min
Jul 5, 1:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Carver, Chippewa, Douglas and 15 more	56 min
Jul 5, 2:06 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Benton, Big Stone, Brown, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Douglas and 24 more	6 hr
Jul 5, 2:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Jackson, Murray, Nobles, Pipestone, Rock	63 min
Jul 5, 3:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Jackson, Nobles, Pipestone, Rock	7 hr
Jul 5, 4:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anoka, Blue Earth, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Dodge and 19 more	7 hr
Jul 5, 5:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Brown, Carver, Chippewa and 30 more	97 min
Jul 5, 5:17 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Itasca, Lake, Saint Louis	118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.