Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

934 
WWUS55 KSLC 032225
SVSSLC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

UTC017-032245-
/O.CON.KSLC.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-160903T2245Z/
GARFIELD UT-
425 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY...

AT 425 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOULDER...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ESCALANTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT STATE ROUTE 12 NEAR BOULDER. MOTORISTS SHOULD
USE CAUTION DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING HAIL ON THE ROADWAY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOULDER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS
WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3776 11142 3784 11153 3815 11134 3798 11107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 217DEG 30KT 3786 11141 

$$

ES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
322 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A warm and somewhat moist southwest flow will prevail
across the region today. A trough and associated cold front will
cross Utah and southwest Wyoming Sunday through early Monday,
bringing a cooling trend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 06Z Wednesday)...Southerly winds are continuing
to increase over the forecast area this afternoon ahead of the broad
Pacific trough currently moving into the Great Basin. The airmass
over western Utah remains on the dry side, satellite derived PWs of
0.6 inch or less, and that is combining with the winds to produce
areas of critical fire weather conditions. See the fire weather
section of the AFD for more details.

A relatively moist airmass remains pooled over eastern Utah with
satellite indicating PWs in excess of 1.0 inch for many locations.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the eastern
half of the forecast area, and will continue into the evening before
decreasing in coverage. Temperatures are on the warm side over
northern Utah with maxes running up to 5F above seasonal norms. The
airmass is a bit cooler over southern Utah where high temperatures
are running closer to climo.

The first wave of the approaching trough will slowly track through
the forecast area tomorrow into early Monday, bringing through a
potent cold front. This passage will dry out the airmass over the
forecast area and cool maxes to up to 10F below seasonal normals.
Winds will also be on the decrease behind the boundary. Only limited
warming is expected on Tuesday in a continued unsettled airmass.

.LONG TERM (After 06z Wednesday)...Long wave consistency in global
models is quite consistent regarding the long wave pattern poised
to unfold during the long term period. A hiccup does exist in
model consistency midweek, with this being the
strength/timing/track of a developing tropical system (originating
well south off Baja) that will likely move into at least a
portion of the desert southwest at that time. Do not have
confidence at this time in any one solution regarding the
aforementioned tropical feature midweek, as the EC develops a
stronger system that could clip the far south, but the
GFS/Canadian both shear this in different regards prior to
reaching the northward extent of our southern state boundary. As
such, will await better consistency before refining any threat
this may pose to the south.

As a whole, anticipated weather moving forward will be
dominated by a cyclonic west to northwest flow across the area,
with the upper jet remaining north of the area yielding a dry
forecast with temps running slightly below climo. Long term
forecast largely unchanged this package.

&&

.Aviation...The surface wind forecast at the SLC terminal remains
low confidence through this evening. The most likely scenario is
that winds will switch to the south around 23-01Z, but there is a 40
percent chance northerlies persist past 01Z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will also continue to threaten the terminal through
03Z, with gusty erratic winds as the most likely impact.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Large Pacific trough slowly making its way eastward
across the Great Basin this afternoon. Increasing southerly flow is
keeping a moist airmass over eastern Utah while western Utah stays
relatively dry. As a result, showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon are primarily confined to the eastern half of Utah, with
wetting rains possible. Across northwest and west central Utah, the
winds and dry conditions are combining to produce critical fire
weather conditions. This threat continues through tomorrow ahead of
a cold front that will cross the area tomorrow through early Monday.
The passage of the front will dry out the airmass and bring
decreasing winds and fall-like temperatures Monday through
midweek.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ478-492.

WY...None.
&&

Traphagan/Merrill/Schoening

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php