Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS San Angelo, TX

026 
WWUS54 KSJT 200529
SVSSJT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1229 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

TXC059-417-200539-
/O.EXP.KSJT.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-160420T0530Z/
CALLAHAN TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
1229 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CALLAHAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 AM CDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9911 3241 9912 3245 9933 3271 9933
      3266 9910 3253 9910 3252 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 280DEG 33KT 3256 9921 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

An upper disturbance moving southeast through the area will bring
thunderstorms and showers to KABI and the eastern terminals
through most of the night. A cold front will swing winds to the
north at KABI by 02Z with light and variable winds at the
remaining terminals. MVFR ceilings and occasional IFR ceilings
will continue at all terminals through the morning hours.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Cloud bases are currently VFR (3500-4500 ft) but will deteriorate
by late evening, eventually falling below 1000 ft across much of
the CWA late tonight. IFR conditions will prevail through mid-
morning with ceilings gradually rising and scattering out by
midday. Winds will be light and variable much of the TAF period,
becoming north to northeast on Wednesday in the wake of a weak
surface boundary. Scattered convection is expected tonight, but
confidence that any particular terminal will be affected is low.
VCSH remarks were included at various times for all sites, mainly
during the 02-05z period. Additional isolated convection will be
possible Wednesday afternoon, mainly southeast of a KSOA-KBWD
line.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
in the vicinity of Fort Stockton, where MLCAPEs are 1000-1500
J/kg and convective inhibition has eroded. Breaks in the clouds
have developed across parts of west central Texas, but persistent
cloud cover has limited the instability in our area. Other showers
and thunderstorms have developed near and north of Lubbock, ahead
of a shortwave trough.

Forecast remains problematic with placement of convection across
our area tonight. If sufficient shower/thunderstorm development
occurs from Midland south to Fort Stockton, some of this could
move east/northeast into some of our western counties. Appears
that the highest rain chance tonight will be across the area north
of a Roby to Abilene to San Saba line. Additional convective
development is anticipated this evening northwest of our area and
possibly into the Big Country, as the aforementioned shortwave
moves east toward North Texas. A weak cold front will sag south
into the Big Country overnight. Could have additional
shower/thunderstorm development ahead of this front. This setup
may result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms affecting our
northern and northeastern counties. A marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms remains in place for much of west central Texas this
evening and tonight.

On Wednesday, carrying low chance PoPs across the southeastern
part of our area. With less cloud cover, temperatures will be
warmer Wednesday. Highs are expected to range from the mid to
upper 70s across the northern and eastern parts of our area, to
the lower 80s across part of the western Concho Valley into
Crockett County.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

The upper low that has influenced the region the past few days
will weaken as it moves east from Midwest states
 and into the
Great Lakes region by Thursday. A shortwave on the back side of
the upper low will approach the area Wednesday evening, with an
associated weak cold front dropping south across West Central
Texas Wednesday night and early Thursday. Medium range models
develop convection north of the area in advance of the front
Wednesday night, with this activity moving south across the
forecast area as a possible MCS overnight into Thursday morning.
Indications are that the front will likely exit far southern
portions of the forecast area by late afternoon, with only some
lingering precipitation along the I-10 corridor through early
evening.

Friday and Saturday will dry and pleasant as upper level ridging
moves into the region. Still looking at another chance for
precipitation late next weekend into early next week as another
upper level system potentially impacts the region. Confidence
remains low concerning the eventual evolution of this system, so
POPs were kept low for Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 72  58  76  59 /  30  50  10  50
San Angelo 	 74  59  80  61 /  30  40  10  30
Junction 	 75  61  79  61 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

99/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
258 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-202000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
258 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OZONA TO
BRADY TO BROWNWOOD LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1100 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ168-170-200445-
MASON TX-MENARD TX-
1100 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MENARD AND
NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1058 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HEXT...OR 14
MILES EAST OF MENARD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  HEXT AROUND 1105 PM CDT.
  STREETER AROUND 1135 PM CDT.
  KATEMCY AROUND 1145 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE THE INTERSECTION OF
HIGHWAY 29 AND RANCH ROAD 1222...THE INTERSECTION OF US-
377 AND RANCH ROAD 1222 AND US-377/US 87 NEAR THE MASON-
MCCULLOCH COUNTY LINE.

LAT...LON 3087 9961 3094 9958 3094 9920 3070 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 279DEG 16KT 3089 9955

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1105 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             1 NE RULE               33.20N  99.88W
04/19/2016  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600057

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1110 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             5 ESE HAMLIN            32.86N 100.05W
04/19/2016  E1.00 INCH       JONES              TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR RADIUM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600058

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             LUEDERS                 32.80N  99.62W
04/19/2016  E1.75 INCH       JONES              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600059

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1139 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ128-139-200530-
COLEMAN TX-CALLAHAN TX-
1139 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLEMAN AND
SOUTHERN CALLAHAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1139 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUDLEY...OR
14 MILES SOUTH OF CLYDE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
COLEMAN AND SOUTHERN CALLAHAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS: US-283 NEAR THE COLEMAN-CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE...ADMIRAL AND
THE INTERSECTION OF US-283 AND HIGHWAY 36.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3198 9929 3208 9963 3230 9961 3231 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 284DEG 27KT 3220 9956

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ114-128-200530-
CALLAHAN TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CALLAHAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1145 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
MORAN...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MORAN AROUND 1200 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MCCARTY LAKE AND US-
283 NEAR THE CALLAHAN-SHACKELFORD COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9911 3242 9912 3250 9941 3268 9936
      3264 9909 3252 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 284DEG 26KT 3258 9930