Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

An upper disturbance moving southeast through the area will bring
thunderstorms and showers to KABI and the eastern terminals
through most of the night. A cold front will swing winds to the
north at KABI by 02Z with light and variable winds at the
remaining terminals. MVFR ceilings and occasional IFR ceilings
will continue at all terminals through the morning hours.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Cloud bases are currently VFR (3500-4500 ft) but will deteriorate
by late evening, eventually falling below 1000 ft across much of
the CWA late tonight. IFR conditions will prevail through mid-
morning with ceilings gradually rising and scattering out by
midday. Winds will be light and variable much of the TAF period,
becoming north to northeast on Wednesday in the wake of a weak
surface boundary. Scattered convection is expected tonight, but
confidence that any particular terminal will be affected is low.
VCSH remarks were included at various times for all sites, mainly
during the 02-05z period. Additional isolated convection will be
possible Wednesday afternoon, mainly southeast of a KSOA-KBWD
line.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
in the vicinity of Fort Stockton, where MLCAPEs are 1000-1500
J/kg and convective inhibition has eroded. Breaks in the clouds
have developed across parts of west central Texas, but persistent
cloud cover has limited the instability in our area. Other showers
and thunderstorms have developed near and north of Lubbock, ahead
of a shortwave trough.

Forecast remains problematic with placement of convection across
our area tonight. If sufficient shower/thunderstorm development
occurs from Midland south to Fort Stockton, some of this could
move east/northeast into some of our western counties. Appears
that the highest rain chance tonight will be across the area north
of a Roby to Abilene to San Saba line. Additional convective
development is anticipated this evening northwest of our area and
possibly into the Big Country, as the aforementioned shortwave
moves east toward North Texas. A weak cold front will sag south
into the Big Country overnight. Could have additional
shower/thunderstorm development ahead of this front. This setup
may result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms affecting our
northern and northeastern counties. A marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms remains in place for much of west central Texas this
evening and tonight.

On Wednesday, carrying low chance PoPs across the southeastern
part of our area. With less cloud cover, temperatures will be
warmer Wednesday. Highs are expected to range from the mid to
upper 70s across the northern and eastern parts of our area, to
the lower 80s across part of the western Concho Valley into
Crockett County.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

The upper low that has influenced the region the past few days
will weaken as it moves east from Midwest states
 and into the
Great Lakes region by Thursday. A shortwave on the back side of
the upper low will approach the area Wednesday evening, with an
associated weak cold front dropping south across West Central
Texas Wednesday night and early Thursday. Medium range models
develop convection north of the area in advance of the front
Wednesday night, with this activity moving south across the
forecast area as a possible MCS overnight into Thursday morning.
Indications are that the front will likely exit far southern
portions of the forecast area by late afternoon, with only some
lingering precipitation along the I-10 corridor through early
evening.

Friday and Saturday will dry and pleasant as upper level ridging
moves into the region. Still looking at another chance for
precipitation late next weekend into early next week as another
upper level system potentially impacts the region. Confidence
remains low concerning the eventual evolution of this system, so
POPs were kept low for Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 72  58  76  59 /  30  50  10  50
San Angelo 	 74  59  80  61 /  30  40  10  30
Junction 	 75  61  79  61 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

99/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
258 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-202000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
258 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OZONA TO
BRADY TO BROWNWOOD LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ114-128-200530-
CALLAHAN TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CALLAHAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1145 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
MORAN...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MORAN AROUND 1200 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MCCARTY LAKE AND US-
283 NEAR THE CALLAHAN-SHACKELFORD COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9911 3242 9912 3250 9941 3268 9936
      3264 9909 3252 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 284DEG 26KT 3258 9930

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HAIL             4 ESE DUDLEY            32.24N  99.54W
04/19/2016  E0.75 INCH       CALLAHAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL OCCURRING ON FM 604 ONE MILE
            SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600060

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

TXZ054-127-200615-
NOLAN TX-TAYLOR TX-
1237 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHERN NOLAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1237 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SWEETWATER...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SWEETWATER AROUND 1240 AM CDT.
  NOLAN AROUND 105 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LAKE SWEETWATER...CAMP
BOOTHE OAKS...THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 70 AND RANCH ROAD 53...CAMP
BUTMAN AND THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 608 AND HIGHWAY 147.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3230 10057 3252 10051 3252 9990 3218 9994
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 281DEG 26KT 3242 10044

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1258 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     HAIL             9 W MENARD              30.92N  99.94W
04/19/2016  E1.25 INCH       MENARD             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL ALONG US 190.

0935 PM     HAIL             RULE                    33.18N  99.89W
04/19/2016  E0.75 INCH       HASKELL            TX   PUBLIC

0935 PM     HAIL             1 NE RULE               33.20N  99.88W
04/19/2016  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0938 PM     HAIL             HAMLIN                  32.88N 100.13W
04/19/2016  M1.75 INCH       JONES              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NORTH OF HAMLIN

0947 PM     HAIL             MENARD                  30.92N  99.79W
04/19/2016  M2.00 INCH       MENARD             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

1000 PM     HAIL             5 ESE HAMLIN            32.86N 100.05W
04/19/2016  E1.00 INCH       JONES              TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR RADIUM.

1044 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MENARD                  30.92N  99.79W
04/19/2016                   MENARD             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 83 IS FLOODED IN MENARD. AT LEAST ONE MOTORIST
            HAS BEEN STRANDED DUE TO FLOODWATERS.

1115 PM     HAIL             LUEDERS                 32.80N  99.62W
04/19/2016  E1.75 INCH       JONES              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1155 PM     HAIL             4 ESE DUDLEY            32.24N  99.54W
04/19/2016  E0.75 INCH       CALLAHAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL OCCURRING ON FM 604 ONE MILE
            SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600052 SJT1600053 SJT1600057 SJT1600054 SJT1600055
SJT1600058 SJT1600056 SJT1600059 SJT1600060

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
110 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

TXZ128-139-140-200700-
COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-
110 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COLEMAN AND SOUTHERN
CALLAHAN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 109 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BURKETT...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF COLEMAN...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BURKETT AROUND 125 AM CDT.
  CROSS PLAINS AROUND 130 AM CDT.
  CROSS CUT AROUND 135 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE US-
283 NEAR THE COLEMAN-CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE AND LAKE COLEMAN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3199 9966 3221 9958 3221 9912 3199 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0609Z 272DEG 24KT 3211 9934

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
114 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

TXZ064-065-200700-
STERLING TX-COKE TX-
114 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COKE AND NORTHERN
STERLING COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 114 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COAHOMA...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG SPRING...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN COKE
AND NORTHERN STERLING COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3209 10126 3209 10068 3186 10077 3193 10126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 287DEG 23KT 3211 10116