Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
402 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Thunderstorms and Slow Moving Cold Front...

A weak cold front will continue to move slowly south across West
Central Texas today, and this boundary will serve as a focus for
continued showers and thunderstorms. Although the threat of large
hail and damaging winds will continue until around sunrise this
morning, mainly along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor,
another developing concern is high rainfall amounts and associated
flash flooding. As the low-level jet, which is currently around 40
knots from the south, weakens over the next several hours, the
severe thunderstorm and flash flood threats should also diminish.
With this surface frontal boundary lingering over our counties for
today, will continue chance PoPs. For tonight...the potential for
continued showers and thunderstorms will shift into our southern
counties, as this front slowly moves into that area.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

...Rain Potential Continues...

The upper pattern will continue to support shower and thunderstorm
development through this weekend and into the start of next week.
Another cold front will push into West Central Texas this weekend,
and that will further enhance the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. Given current model timing, will continue with the
best rain chances on Sunday. That's when this next cold front and
upper support will be best aligned over our counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 75  59  82  63 /  50  20  10  10
San Angelo 	 80  62  84  64 /  50  40  10  10
Junction 	 82  64  83  64 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
440 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-130945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
440 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HAS
DIMINISHED. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
ARE FLASH FLOODING AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD FOR MOST OF THOSE DAYS WILL
BE DEADLY LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE MAY NEED SPOTTERS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
405 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

TXZ049-054-121000-
FISHER TX-NOLAN TX-
405 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FISHER AND NORTHERN NOLAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 404 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SYLVESTER...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF SWEETWATER...MOVING SOUTH AT
20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF FISHER AND NORTHERN
NOLAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: LAKE SWEETWATER...
CAPITOLA...CAMP BOOTHE OAKS...HITSON...GANNON AND BUSBY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3252 10014 3233 10015 3236 10066 3295 10063
      3295 10016
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 347DEG 44KT 3262 10020

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
415 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

TXZ049-113-114-127-128-121015-
JONES TX-FISHER TX-CALLAHAN TX-TAYLOR TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
415 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALLAHAN...NORTHERN
TAYLOR...WESTERN SHACKELFORD AND JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 413 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR NOODLE
TO JUST NORTH OF HAWLEY...TO NUGENT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ABILENE AROUND 440 AM CDT.
  HAMBY AROUND 445 AM CDT.
  CLYDE AND POTOSI AROUND 450 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE IMPACT...HODGES...
TUXEDO...TRUBY...LAKE FORT PHANTOM HILL...AND KIRBY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3233 9936 3233 10015 3294 10016 3295 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 335DEG 30KT 3268 9971

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