Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS San Angelo, TX

885 
WGUS74 KSJT 120253
FFSSJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
953 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXC049-059-083-120445-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160512T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN TX-COLEMAN TX-CALLAHAN TX-
953 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN BROWN...NORTHERN COLEMAN AND SOUTHERN CALLAHAN COUNTIES...

AT 948 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALLAHAN AND NORTHERN COLEMAN
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 1145 PM. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 9961 3224 9963 3226 9914 3224 9911
      3208 9912 3208 9893 3188 9879

$$

MC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
705 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Thunderstorms will continue across much of the Big Country this
evening. The KABI terminal may be affected during the next few
hours, but it looks like most of the convection will remain north
and east of KABI. Additional thunderstorms are possible later
tonight through the early morning at least indicated high res
models. Going with TEMPO groups for TSRA at KABI/KSJT for a few
hours. Otherwise, stratus will develop by Thursday morning and
have MVFR ceilings by 08Z to 11Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Weak front has sagged into the northern Big Country this afternoon,
with visible satellite showing the boundary draped across Haskell
and Throckmorton Counties. Much drier behind the boundary, but ahead
of the boundary low level instability is increasing with CAPE values
above 3000 j/kg. Having said that, there has been healthy inhibition
in place as well so far today. Not a lot upper support, so will
depend on additional heating and convergence along the front to
initiate convection. Will likely see the first storms develop later
this afternoon across the Big Country near the frontal boundary, and
perhaps farther south along an outflow boundary from last nights
convection that looks to be laying north of Coleman and Brownwood.
As inhibition continues to weaken, storms will begin to increase in
coverage.

Front is expected to stall, perhaps even push back north for a
little while, and then start to move back south by around midnight.
Models show more widespread convection developing along the front at
this point and pushing south. Highest POP's will be across the Big
Country overnight and then pushing south across the remainder of
West Central Texas late tonight and into the day on Thursday. Chance
POPS area wide on Thursday. Increased cloud cover and cooler air
mass will lead to afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night and Wednesday)

Rain chances will continue across much of West Central Texas through
the extended forecast. A cold front that will move through much of
the area Thursday, then stall somewhere across our southern
counties Thursday night, aiding in continued shower and
thunderstorm development. Exactly where this front stalls will
dictate where the best PoPs will reside. At this point, the best
PoPs look to be across our southern counties, with rain chances
decreasing as you head north toward the Big Country. A few
lingering storms will be possible Friday, especially across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Friday will be near to slightly
below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 80s.

The next cold front will approach the northern Big Country Saturday
morning, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Some timing differences continue with this feature, but this front
is forecast to slowly move through the area Saturday into Saturday
night. This in combination with intermittent disturbances moving
across the region in the southwest flow aloft, will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to much of the forecast area. Highs on
Saturday will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s, while highs on
Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

At least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
the first part of next week, as the region remains in southwest flow
aloft. High will mainly be in the 80s with overnight lows mainly in
the 60s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 64  75  60  82 /  70  40  20  10
San Angelo 	 67  80  63  85 /  40  50  30  20
Junction 	 71  83  64  85 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-122015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
304 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 FROM SWEETWATER TO ABILENE. LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
750 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HAIL             4 N MORAN               32.60N  99.17W
05/11/2016  E2.00 INCH       SHACKELFORD        TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL FALLING ALONG STATE
            HIGHWAY 6 NORTH OF MORAN.

0724 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N MORAN               32.60N  99.17W
05/11/2016  E60 MPH          SHACKELFORD        TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600160
EVENT NUMBER SJT1600161

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
804 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ113-120130-
JONES TX-
804 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 803 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEINDA...OR 9
MILES WEST OF ANSON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ANSON AROUND 825 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE THE INTERSECTION OF
US-180 AND RANCH ROAD 126 AND TRUBY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3264 10014 3284 10013 3278 9981 3260 9984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 281DEG 22KT 3274 10006

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
815 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             8 E OPLIN               32.16N  99.42W
05/11/2016  E1.50 INCH       CALLAHAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600162

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
828 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HAIL             3 N BURKETT             32.04N  99.23W
05/11/2016  E2.75 INCH       COLEMAN            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600163

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
833 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ099-113-114-120215-
JONES TX-THROCKMORTON TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
833 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN THROCKMORTON...
NORTHERN SHACKELFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

AT 832 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAWLEY...OR
NEAR ANSON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NUGENT AROUND 845 PM CDT.
  LUEDERS AROUND 855 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE HODGES...FUNSTON...THE
INTERSECTION OF US-283 AND RANCH ROAD 209...THE INTERSECTION OF US-
180 AND FARM ROAD 600...THE INTERSECTION OF US-183 AND US-
283 AND BIG COUNTRY BAPTIST ASSEMBLY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3296 9907 3295 9910 3289 9910 3256 9987
      3272 9997 3296 9953 3296 9947 3299 9947
      3314 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 255DEG 37KT 3267 9985

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
841 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             8 ESE OPLIN             32.11N  99.42W
05/11/2016  E1.25 INCH       CALLAHAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600164

JD