Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
705 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Thunderstorms will continue across much of the Big Country this
evening. The KABI terminal may be affected during the next few
hours, but it looks like most of the convection will remain north
and east of KABI. Additional thunderstorms are possible later
tonight through the early morning at least indicated high res
models. Going with TEMPO groups for TSRA at KABI/KSJT for a few
hours. Otherwise, stratus will develop by Thursday morning and
have MVFR ceilings by 08Z to 11Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Weak front has sagged into the northern Big Country this afternoon,
with visible satellite showing the boundary draped across Haskell
and Throckmorton Counties. Much drier behind the boundary, but ahead
of the boundary low level instability is increasing with CAPE values
above 3000 j/kg. Having said that, there has been healthy inhibition
in place as well so far today. Not a lot upper support, so will
depend on additional heating and convergence along the front to
initiate convection. Will likely see the first storms develop later
this afternoon across the Big Country near the frontal boundary, and
perhaps farther south along an outflow boundary from last nights
convection that looks to be laying north of Coleman and Brownwood.
As inhibition continues to weaken, storms will begin to increase in
coverage.

Front is expected to stall, perhaps even push back north for a
little while, and then start to move back south by around midnight.
Models show more widespread convection developing along the front at
this point and pushing south. Highest POP's will be across the Big
Country overnight and then pushing south across the remainder of
West Central Texas late tonight and into the day on Thursday. Chance
POPS area wide on Thursday. Increased cloud cover and cooler air
mass will lead to afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night and Wednesday)

Rain chances will continue across much of West Central Texas through
the extended forecast. A cold front that will move through much of
the area Thursday, then stall somewhere across our southern
counties Thursday night, aiding in continued shower and
thunderstorm development. Exactly where this front stalls will
dictate where the best PoPs will reside. At this point, the best
PoPs look to be across our southern counties, with rain chances
decreasing as you head north toward the Big Country. A few
lingering storms will be possible Friday, especially across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Friday will be near to slightly
below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 80s.

The next cold front will approach the northern Big Country Saturday
morning, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Some timing differences continue with this feature, but this front
is forecast to slowly move through the area Saturday into Saturday
night. This in combination with intermittent disturbances moving
across the region in the southwest flow aloft, will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to much of the forecast area. Highs on
Saturday will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s, while highs on
Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

At least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
the first part of next week, as the region remains in southwest flow
aloft. High will mainly be in the 80s with overnight lows mainly in
the 60s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 64  75  60  82 /  70  40  20  10
San Angelo 	 67  80  63  85 /  40  50  30  20
Junction 	 71  83  64  85 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-122015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
304 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 FROM SWEETWATER TO ABILENE. LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
933 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     HAIL             CROSS PLAINS            32.13N  99.17W
05/11/2016  E1.75 INCH       CALLAHAN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600166

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
943 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     HAIL             NOVICE                  31.99N  99.62W
05/11/2016  E1.25 INCH       COLEMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL ONGOING IN NOVICE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600167

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1012 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ066-120345-
RUNNELS TX-
1012 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTY UNTIL
1045 PM CDT...

AT 1011 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CREWS...OR 10
MILES EAST OF WINTERS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
RUNNELS COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3194 9986 3205 9985 3206 9972 3195 9971
      3191 9972 3190 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 261DEG 11KT 3198 9978

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