Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

...Storms through this Evening then Cooler and Drier...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Convection continued to increase in coverage into this afternoon
along and north of a nearly stationary front stretching from just
south of Joplin and along the I-44 corridor. A few of these storms
were had approaching severe limits. Showers and storms had developed
well north of the surface boundary ahead of the 850 MB front.

The surface front will begin a gradual southeastward push into
the late afternoon aided by rain cooled air to the north.
Meanwhile an upper level trough coming out of the Rockies will
begin to assert it's influence heading into late afternoon and
this evening.

Strengthening synoptic scale lift will support additional
development with increasing storm coverage into far southern
Missouri along and behind the front. Most unstable CAPE of 1000 to
3000 J/KG and deep layer shear of 30 to 40 kts will support the
risk for strong to locally severe storms. Strong winds and hail
look to be the primary risk with any severe storms that develop.
Storms that develop along the front will be have to be monitored
for supercellular structure but any tornado risk appears to be
very low. Heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flooding
will also have to be monitored where storms train across the same
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The cold front will begin a steady push to the southeast across
the region this evening as the upper level trough swings east.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage and
linger behind the surface front. The activity will taper off from
the west later tonight as the 850 MB front pushes to the southeast
with most activity moving to our east by daybreak Thursday. A drier
and cooler airmass will overspread the region Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Seasonably cool temperatures can be expected heading into late
week as surface high pressure builds into the area and the region
comes under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft.

A warming trend will return this weekend into early next week as
an upper level ridge builds back across the region. Dry weather
will persist until the middle or later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Pilots can expect deteriorating flight conditions as a cold front
moves across the area. This front will bring showers and
thunderstorms along with low ceilings. MVFR to IFR conditions
will develop behind the front through the evening. Improving
conditions will return Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
 INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND
 SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LAMAR TO ELDON MISSOURI.

 SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH
 THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
 DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
 INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
 INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

 IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS WHICH
 COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN
 ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  A DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
  WARMER AND GRADUALLY MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING BACK
  INTO THE REGION BY EARLY WEEK NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
  THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AROUND MIDWEEK
  NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
517 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             2 SE MARSHFIELD         37.32N 92.88W
10/19/2016  E0.75 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     HAIL             6 W LYNCHBURG           37.49N 92.40W
10/19/2016  E1.00 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   POST OFFICE

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             CONWAY                  37.50N 92.82W
10/19/2016  M1.00 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   PUBLIC

&&

MGRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

MOZ083-192330-
DENT MO-
548 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DENT COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 548 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SALEM...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTAUK STATE PARK...             SALEM...
BUNKER...                         STONE HILL...
JADWIN...                         HOWES MILL...
GLADDEN...                        SLIGO...
BOSS...                           DARIEN...
HOWES...                          TURTLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3759 9131 3751 9131 3750 9121 3742 9121
      3742 9167 3770 9172 3779 9131 3771 9131
      3770 9130 3769 9115 3759 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 269DEG 56KT 3758 9151

GRIFFIN