Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Springfield, MO

020 
WWUS53 KSGF 191907
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
207 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

MOC225-191917-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-161019T1945Z/
WEBSTER MO-
207 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3740 9265 3742 9268 3748 9269 3749 9270
      3753 9270 3759 9263 3766 9247 3768 9232
      3764 9225 3741 9225 3739 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 257DEG 25KT 3748 9261 

$$

MOC105-229-191945-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-161019T1945Z/
LACLEDE MO-WRIGHT MO-
207 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LACLEDE AND NORTHERN WRIGHT COUNTIES...

AT 207 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES EAST OF
CONWAY...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF LEBANON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORGAN...                         TWIN BRIDGES...
LYNCHBURG...                      FALCON...
GROVESPRING...                    DRY KNOB...
COMPETITION...                    

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3740 9265 3742 9268 3748 9269 3749 9270
      3753 9270 3759 9263 3766 9247 3768 9232
      3764 9225 3741 9225 3739 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 257DEG 25KT 3748 9261 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CRAMER

852 
WWUS53 KSGF 191928
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

MOC229-191938-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-161019T1945Z/
WRIGHT MO-
228 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WRIGHT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3748 9254 3752 9255 3756 9253 3768 9232
      3768 9231 3764 9225 3747 9225 3748 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 248DEG 22KT 3753 9247 

$$

MOC105-191945-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-161019T1945Z/
LACLEDE MO-
228 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LACLEDE COUNTY...

AT 228 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LEBANON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COMPETITION...                    LYNCHBURG...
FALCON...                         

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9254 3752 9255 3756 9253 3768 9232
      3768 9231 3764 9225 3747 9225 3748 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 248DEG 22KT 3753 9247 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CRAMER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A cold frontal boundary will remain draped across the region
through early Thursday. Numerous showers and T'storms are
expected to develop in the proximity of the frontal boundary
through Wednesday evening. The front should push south and east
of the region allowing for a cooler and drier airmass to filter
into the region through Friday.

A dry weekend is expected with temperatures warming above average
once again by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A stalled frontal boundary was located just south and east of the
I44 corridor this morning. This feature and an amplifying wave
moving into the region will be the main concern through the short
term period.

A very modest LLJ, isentropic upglide, and a few very weak mid level
impulses have caused some elevated convective development this
morning down in Ozark, Douglas, and Howell Counties. Much of the
short term guidances are picking up on the potential for more
development through the morning hours. Given the elevated nature
and weak upper level support, severe weather odds look pretty low
through the morning.

Additional development will likely occur through the day as a rather
diffuse surface low moves along the frontal boundary. In conjunction
with the low, upper level height falls will also begin to steepen
lapse rates over the region. Cloud cover will probably limit
heating along and north of the front, which should cause a rather
tight temperature/instability gradient between cooler temps north
(lower instability) and warmer temps south (higher instability).

Surface dewpoints will likely climb into the upper 60s to near 70
south of the front where moderate to perhaps strong surface based
instability is expected to develop by peak heating. Where this
instability and ~40kt 0-6km bulk shear are juxtaposed (generally
along and south of the front) will be the areas with the best
odds of severe weather this afternoon and into the early evening.
Exact positioning of the front will likely be a challenge.
Forecast surface ThetaE shows the boundary hanging out right
along Highway 60 or perhaps 10-20 miles or so north. The exact
placement will play a crucial role in determining exactly where
the better chances of T'storms will reside later today.

The primary threat from the stronger storms looks to be large hail
and perhaps a strong wind gust or two. As storms cross the
frontal boundary and become more elevated, a hail potential will
likely exist at least a tier or two counties north of the front.
The heaviest rainfall will likely remain across the eastern
portions of the Ozarks with lesser amounts over southeast Kansas.

The primary limiting factor for severe weather at this juncture
looks to be timing of the wave/limited upper level ascent during
peak heating.

Finally, the frontal boundary is expected to finally clear the
area late in the evening and overnight as the parent wave pushes
through the area. Cold air will then begin to filter into the
entire region by early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

To begin the long term, seasonably cool temperatures can be expected
across the region as a surface high pressure pushes into the area.
Overnight lows will drop into the lower 40s across the area Friday.
Some of our colder locations may dip into the 30s.

The airmass will begin to modify through the weekend as the
cooler high pressure system begins to exit stage right. This will
initiate a return flow by Sunday. Temperatures will begin to warm
as an upper level ridge begins to build into the area early next
week when once again above average temperatures can be anticipated
to start you work week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The frontal boundary will be nearly stationary across the area
today near the I-44 corridor. Will see fluctuations between
VFR/MVFR conditions depending on the frontal position and
convection which will be scattered in nature through the morning.
Later in the day, instability will increase south of the front and
will see thunderstorm coverage increase. The front will push east
as an upper wave begins to move through the area later this
evening and tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Frye
SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
 INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND
 SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LAMAR TO ELDON MISSOURI.

 SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH
 THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
 DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
 INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
 INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

 IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS WHICH
 COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN
 ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  A DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
  WARMER AND GRADUALLY MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING BACK
  INTO THE REGION BY EARLY WEEK NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
  THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AROUND MIDWEEK
  NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
10/19/2016                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ON PIPER ROAD NEAR ASH GROVE

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
10/19/2016                   GREENE             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SMALL OUTBUILDING BOLTED TO CONCRETE FOUNDATION WAS
            LIFTED OFF FOUNDATION BY DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     HAIL             6 NE WILLARD            37.36N 93.36W
10/19/2016  E0.75 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL VIA MPING REPORT

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
10/19/2016                   GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN OVER POWER LINES IN ASH GROVE

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
147 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
10/19/2016                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF LIMBS DOWN IN ASH GROVE WITH SOME UP
            TO 24 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

BURCHFIELD