Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A surface boundary was located from southeast Kansas into northern
Missouri early this afternoon. Instability has developed south and
east of the boundary with surface based CAPES of 3000-4000 j/kg
over the Ozarks. 0-6 bulk shear was between 30-40kts. Main focus
over the short term period will be with convection potential,
especially over our northwestern 1/3 of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

For the remainder of this afternoon and tonight, we are
anticipating some scattered convection to begin firing up shortly
over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. More
organized convection is expected to our north and west again
tonight. PW values along the front to our northwest tonight will
be between 1.7 and 1.9 in. and our surrounding WFO neighbors to
our north and west will be issuing a flash flood watch for
tonight, given the already heavy rainfall from last night. Over
our area, main concern will be in our northwest 1/3 of the CWA
which could get the eastern extent of this convection tonight, but
at this time we are not expecting enough in the way to warrant a
watch in our cwa and we also did not get the rainfall as did the
areas to our northwest last night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The front is expected to hang around the area through the weekend
with continued chances for scattered convection anticipated. At
this time we are not expecting organized severe storms, but could
see some strong storms develop during the afternoon on Friday near
the frontal boundary. Cloud cover and scattered convection will
keep temperatures down slightly with highs generally in the mid to
upper 80s.

Can't rule out thunderstorm chances on a daily basis given the
high moisture content and weak disturbances pushing through the
area. Little change in daily temperatures is expected through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Scattered convection will occur for a few hours this evening,
mainly affecting the JLN terminal. Have also thrown in a vcts for
SGF at the onset. Additional convection will fire up overnight as
the low level jet develops with most of that activity remaining
north and west of the CWA. Within the convection do bring down to
MVFR and outside of convection keep in VFR.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
813 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
813 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
  EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
  CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND LARGE
  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
  AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
  FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ON A DAILY BASIS FROM
  FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WILL
  REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO NEXT MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

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