Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
223 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Cluster of thunderstorms continues along and northeast of a
outflow reinforced sfc boundary over central MO. Another boundary
also extends west from just north of KSGF into southeast KS. A
low level 850mb almost westerly-northwesterly flow is feeding this
complex and expect to see potential for storm training on any nw-
se oriented storm clusters as they continue backbuild and
develop. Vertical shear (0-6km bulk shear 30-40kts over the
northern cwfa) has occasionally supported rotating updrafts to
support some pretty stout hail cores at times.

The storms will drift southeast into south central MO over the
next few hours, but some additional development will be possible
along the western/northwestern flank of the cluster along the low
level boundary just north of KSGF. Will need to continue to watch
for areas of training storms (flooding) with an occasional strong
to severe storms still also possible.

The storms over the eastern cwfa will finally drift off to the
southeast and then attention will turn off to the west once again.
Another disturbance moving out the central Rockies/Central High
Plains will support another growing complex of storms over KS
today. Vertical shear and strengthening low level ssw-ly flow
will support storm organization into an MCS which is forecast to
move ese into our forecast area during the afternoon/early
evening. Timing is still questionable and it will be an unfolding
mesoscale challenge. Additional storms may develop along and
north of boundary overnight, being more focused over the southern
cwfa and points south. Wind/hail/flooding will be the main
concerns with this next round (or two) of storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Additional storms will be possible, lingering early Fri, and then
with some possible additional development moving in Fri night
into early Sat. With the sfc boundary moving farther south of the
area, elevated convection Fri night/early Sat would be more
confined to the southern cwfa. This is a low confidence estimate
given some many mesoscale variables.

Beyond Saturday, the trend toward a big upper ridge building over
the area with limited to no precip still looks good. Hot/humid
conditions but little chance for rain early/midweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Will monitor cluster of storms north
of KSGF. High res models differ in guidance over the next few
hours, but plausible that storms can develop southward with time
and tafs reflect that possibility. VFR outside of thunderstorms. A
front will finally veer winds to the northwest and north later in
the taf period with additional chances for convection.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
903 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
903 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING INTO
  THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
  STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  GOLF BALLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  WILL ALSO BE A RISK WITH THE STORMS.

  LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
  OF HIGHWAY 54...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
  RAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL
  TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

  STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
  A FRONT REMAIN IN THE AREA. WHILE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST COMMON HAZARDS. IF REPEATED
  ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...THEN
  FLOODING COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A CONCERN.

  HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES
  WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...AND OVER THE
  ENTIRE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LOWRY CITY              38.14N 93.73W
07/13/2016                   ST. CLAIR          MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN AND MINOR PATIO
            DAMAGE TO HOME. THIS REPORT WAS FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME
            WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OSAGE BEACH             38.15N 92.62W
07/13/2016                   CAMDEN             MO   UTILITY COMPANY

            ELECTRIC COOP WEBSITE REPORTED UP TO 10,000 CUSTOMERS
            WITHOUT POWER ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION.

1235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CEDAR SPRINGS           37.87N 93.89W
07/13/2016                   CEDAR              MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES SNAPPED AND OUTBUILDING DAMAGE.

1250 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E FRISTOE             38.12N 93.22W
07/13/2016  E50.00 MPH       BENTON             MO   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH WINDS.

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STOVER                  38.44N 92.99W
07/13/2016                   MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN IN STOVER. TIME BASED ON RADAR
            ESTIMATE.

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUMANSVILLE             37.79N 93.58W
07/13/2016                   POLK               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY LARGE TREES 1 TO 2 FOOT DIAMETER DOWN IN TOWN. LARGE
            TREE DOWN ON TOP OF TRUCK.

0110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE PITTSBURG          37.86N 93.26W
07/13/2016                   HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

            64-FEET WIDE AND 250 FEET LONG DOCK BLOWN ONTO ANOTHER
            DOCK. TIME ESTIMATED.

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     URBANA                  37.84N 93.17W
07/13/2016                   DALLAS             MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES WERE UPROOTED NEAR URBANA.

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TUNAS                   37.85N 93.03W
07/13/2016                   DALLAS             MO   PUBLIC

            TRAMPOLINE TROWN INTO A TREE AND DESTROYED. PICTURE FROM
            SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0127 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROACH                   37.99N 92.84W
07/13/2016                   CAMDEN             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            THREE-INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE CAMDENTON          38.02N 92.73W
07/13/2016                   CAMDEN             MO   PUBLIC

            8 TO 12 INCH TREE UPROOTED AT HWY 5 AND HWY 54. POWER OUT
            FROM OLD HWY5 TO NEW HWY 5. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

0142 PM     TSTM WND GST     OSAGE BEACH             38.15N 92.62W
07/13/2016  M47.00 MPH       CAMDEN             MO   AWOS

            47 MPH WIND GUST AT OSAGE BEACH - KAIZ.

0145 PM     HAIL             CAMDENTON               38.01N 92.74W
07/13/2016  M1.00 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON BEAR PAW ROAD.

0150 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE CAMDENTON          37.98N 92.71W
07/13/2016  M50.00 MPH       CAMDEN             MO   AWOS

            50 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT KOZS AWOS

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ULMAN                   38.15N 92.44W
07/13/2016                   MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN
            AROUND ULMAN AND ACROSS MILLER COUNTY. VIDEO WAS ON
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

0205 PM     TSTM WND GST     RICHLAND                37.86N 92.40W
07/13/2016  M63.00 MPH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            63 MPH WIND GUST.

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. ROBERT              37.83N 92.18W
07/13/2016                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND ST. ROBERTS.

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAYNESVILLE             37.83N 92.20W
07/13/2016                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN THE WAYNESVILLE AREA.
            THERE WAS DAMAGE TO A FENCE AND MINOR DAMAGE TO A HOME.
            PICTURE WAS ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N VICHY               38.13N 91.77W
07/13/2016  M61.00 MPH       MARIES             MO   ASOS

            ASOS REPORTED WIND GUST OF 61 MPH.

0225 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S NEWBURG             37.85N 91.89W
07/13/2016  E70.00 MPH       PHELPS             MO   PUBLIC

            WINDS ESTIMATED UP TO 70 MPH. HEAVY RAIN 1.50 TO 1.74
            INCHES IN 30 MINUTES.

0225 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S NEWBURG             37.85N 91.89W
07/13/2016  E1.74 INCH       PHELPS             MO   PUBLIC

            1.50 TO 1.74 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 30 MINUTES.

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROLLA                   37.95N 91.77W
07/13/2016                   PHELPS             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREE AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE
            COUNTY. A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN ONTO CARS. ONE TREE WAS
            BLOWN ON TO A HOUSE CAUSING STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E WAYNESVILLE         37.83N 92.16W
07/13/2016                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE AND LIMBS DOWN GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. 0.75
            INCH HAIL ALSO.

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 S ROLLA               37.85N 91.77W
07/13/2016                   PHELPS             MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES AND SEVERAL POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.
            PICTURE FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROLLA                   37.95N 91.77W
07/13/2016                   PHELPS             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DOWNED POWER LINES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS THE
            COUNTY.

0705 PM     HAIL             1 E DECATURVILLE        37.91N 92.68W
07/13/2016  M0.88 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

0745 PM     HAIL             RICHLAND                37.86N 92.40W
07/13/2016  M1.50 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            PICTURE FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0810 PM     HAIL             CAMDENTON               38.01N 92.74W
07/13/2016  M1.75 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM     HAIL             TUSCUMBIA               38.23N 92.46W
07/13/2016  M0.88 INCH       MILLER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

0839 PM     HAIL             1 N CAMDENTON           38.02N 92.74W
07/13/2016  M1.00 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF CAMDENTON

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE WET GLAIZE        37.99N 92.49W
07/13/2016                   CAMDEN             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF LARGE TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN. SIZE UNKNOWN AT
            THIS TIME. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

1005 PM     HAIL             1 W CROCKER             37.95N 92.28W
07/13/2016  E0.88 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL ON HWY U JUST OUTSIDE OF
            CROCKER.CORRECTED.

1005 PM     HAIL             5 SSE HERMITAGE         37.88N 93.26W
07/13/2016  M0.75 INCH       HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

            HWY 64 AND NN NEAR NEMO REPORTS PENNY SIZE HAIL AND LOTS
            OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

TOLSEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

MOZ080-081-140600-
LACLEDE MO-DALLAS MO-
1227 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DALLAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LACLEDE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1227 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
BENNETT SPRING STATE PARK...      BUFFALO...
CONWAY...                         BENNETT SPRINGS...
LONG LANE...                      WINDYVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 111 AND 114.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3754 9311 3773 9309 3775 9279 3749 9282
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 290DEG 10KT 3764 9300

HATCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
415 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CONWAY                  37.50N 92.82W
07/14/2016                   LACLEDE            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PART OF I-44 BRIEFLY FLOODED NEAR THE 110 MILE MARKER.
            SEVERAL CRASHES HAVE CLOSED THE INTERSTATE. WATER HAS
            RECEDED. THREE SWIFT WATER RESCUES ALSO OCCURED IN THE
            CONWAY AREA.

&&

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
437 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

MOZ097-098-105-106-141030-
OZARK MO-SHANNON MO-OREGON MO-HOWELL MO-
437 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON...SOUTHERN
HOWELL...OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERN OZARK COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 434 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIRCH
TREE TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS TO NEAR BAKERSFIELD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
WEST PLAINS...                    GRAND GULF STATE PARK...
NORFORK LAKE...                   THAYER...
ALTON...                          BAKERSFIELD...
SOUTH FORK...                     KOSHKONONG...
BRANDSVILLE...                    THOMASVILLE...
MOODY...                          COUCH...
LANTON...                         MYRTLE...
GREER...                          WILDERNESS...
ROVER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 9188 3698 9162 3691 9122 3682 9122
      3682 9112 3650 9113 3650 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 285DEG 20KT 3690 9159 3664 9180 3650 9221

GAEDE