Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
649 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

The line of storms that produced widespread wind damaging across
central Missouri has now pushed each of the area this afternoon.
Showers and scattered storms have developed behind the line. These
storms are elevated in nature and moving across an area where the
atmosphere has been worked over from the line of storms that
passed through these areas early. So, not anticipating any severe
weather with this activity with cloud to ground lightning strikes
the main risk.

This evening there are then questions are how things will unfold.
The outflow boundary from the line of storms has stalled across
southern Missouri. There is also a surface boundary located
across southeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri this
afternoon. Southern Missouri did not get affected by the storms
today as they remained north across central MO. Eastern Kansas
was affected earlier in the day but occurred earlier enough that
temperatures have been able recovered there. Additional storm
develop is possible along these features early this evening then
will sag south through the area into the overnight hours. There
will be a severe wind risk with this activity along with hail to
the size of quarters with the stormer storms, especially  across
areas that were not affected by the line early today across
extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri.

The active pattern will continue into Thursday as yet another
complex of storms is expected to develop across Kansas and
track east across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Given
the time of day of the convection and with a moist and unstable
air mass in place, a severe risk will occur. Damaging straight
line winds and hail to the size of quarters will be the risk,
along with frequent lightning and brief heavy rainfall. The track
of this complex may be a little farther south than where today's
storms tracked. The exact location will be dependent on where the
storms develop across Kansas.

Highs on Tuesday will again warm into the 90s, though where the
storms track will impact temperatures when they move though.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

A cold front will push south through the area Thursday night into
Friday. Storms will be possible along the front on Friday, but
with drier air working in the severe risk should be lower. May
still have just enough instability across far southern Missouri
for a few strong storms on Friday.

The region remains in northwest flow through Saturday night. Will
not be a washout by any means but there will be chances for
showers and storms at times during this period. The severe risk
will be low. Cooler conditions will occur both Friday and
Saturday as highs warm into the 80s behind the frontal passage.

The front will lift back to the north as a warm front Sunday as an
upper level ridge of high pressure spreads over the region by
early next week. This will bring hot conditions to the area next
week as highs warm well into the 90s, as heat index values of 100
to 108 will be possible. The upper level ridge will end the
active weather pattern that the area has been in of late. However,
it will not completely end storm chances all together as pulse
time storms will be possible. These will be the typical hit and
miss summer time storms and will not be widespread in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
region this evening and impact area terminals during the
overnight hours. Timing and coverage remains a question and have
opted for Tempo or vicinity wording in the forecast. Where storms
occur, celings and visibilities will be impacted and fall to MVFR
or IFR.

Additional storms are anticipated for early Thursday morning as
well.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Hatch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
903 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
903 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING INTO
  THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
  STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  GOLF BALLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  WILL ALSO BE A RISK WITH THE STORMS.

  LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
  OF HIGHWAY 54...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
  RAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL
  TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

  STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
  A FRONT REMAIN IN THE AREA. WHILE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST COMMON HAZARDS. IF REPEATED
  ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...THEN
  FLOODING COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A CONCERN.

  HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES
  WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...AND OVER THE
  ENTIRE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOZ057-058-140345-
MARIES MO-MILLER MO-
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARIES AND SOUTHEASTERN
MILLER COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1000 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF IBERIA...OR 9 MILES EAST OF OSAGE BEACH...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
IBERIA...                         VIENNA...
SAINT ELIZABETH...                ST. ELIZABETH...
BRUMLEY...                        BRINKTOWN...
ULMAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 9219 3829 9195 3828 9192 3801 9198
      3802 9219 3806 9230 3807 9250 3819 9252
      3833 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 255DEG 23KT 3814 9244

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1010 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOZ057-070-071-140400-
PHELPS MO-MILLER MO-PULASKI MO-
1010 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PHELPS...NORTHERN
PULASKI AND SOUTHEASTERN MILLER COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1010 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CROCKER...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
WAYNESVILLE...                    ST. ROBERT...
DIXON...                          CROCKER...
DEVIL'S ELBOW...                  JEROME...
SWEDEBORG...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 159 AND 169...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 174.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 9218 3801 9213 3801 9196 3778 9193
      3776 9202 3791 9240 3806 9241 3806 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 280DEG 19KT 3796 9226

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1037 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE WET GLAIZE        37.99N 92.49W
07/13/2016                   CAMDEN             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF LARGE TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN. SIZE UNKNOWN AT
            THIS TIME. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

1005 PM     HAIL             1 W CROCKER             37.95N 92.28W
07/13/2016  E0.88 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            .75 INCH SIZE HAIL ON HWY U JUST OUTSIDE OF CROCKER.

&&

TOLSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1056 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HAIL             5 SSE HERMITAGE         37.88N 93.26W
07/13/2016  M0.75 INCH       HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

            HWY 64 AND NN NEAR NEMO REPORTS PENNY SIZE HAIL AND LOTS
            OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

TOLSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HAIL             1 W CROCKER             37.95N 92.28W
07/13/2016  E0.88 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL ON HWY U JUST OUTSIDE OF
            CROCKER.CORRECTED.

&&

TOLSEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1113 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOZ080-140500-
DALLAS MO-
1113 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1113 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER URBANA...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HERMITAGE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
BENNETT SPRING STATE PARK...      URBANA...
BENNETT SPRINGS...                LOUISBURG...
TUNAS...                          WINDYVILLE...
LEADMINE...                       PUMPKIN CENTER...
PLAD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 9286 3767 9285 3771 9317 3773 9317
      3773 9319 3787 9319 3790 9318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 288DEG 16KT 3784 9311

HATCH