Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Springfield, MO

July 13, 20167 counties in Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2016, 1:59 PM CDT for 7 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 61 min. 9 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 13, 2016, 1:59 PM CDT (18:59 UTC)
Expired
Jul 13, 2016, 3:00 PM CDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
NWS Springfield, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Camden County, MO, Dent County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 13, 2:05 PM CDTTSTM WND GST 63Richland, MO63 MPH WIND GUST.
Jul 13, 2:15 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGSt. Robert, MOSEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND ST. ROBERTS.
Jul 13, 2:15 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGWaynesville, MONUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN THE WAYNESVILLE AREA. THERE WAS DAMAGE TO A FENCE AND MINOR DAMAGE TO A HOME. PICTURE WAS ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
Jul 13, 2:20 PM CDTTSTM WND GST 611 N Vichy, MOASOS REPORTED WIND GUST OF 61 MPH.
Jul 13, 2:25 PM CDTTSTM WND GST 704 S Newburg, MOWINDS ESTIMATED UP TO 70 MPH. HEAVY RAIN 1.50 TO 1.74 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES.
Jul 13, 2:30 PM CDTTSTM WND DMG2 E Waynesville, MOLARGE TREE AND LIMBS DOWN GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. 0.75 INCH HAIL ALSO.
Jul 13, 2:30 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGRolla, MONUMEROUS LARGE TREE AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN ONTO CARS. ONE TREE WAS BLOWN ON TO A HOUSE CAUSING STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
Jul 13, 2:35 PM CDTTSTM WND DMG7 S Rolla, MONUMEROUS TREES AND SEVERAL POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. PICTURE FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
Jul 13, 2:50 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGRolla, MODOWNED POWER LINES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 9 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 6 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 13, 11:14 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2016-07-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1257 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2016-07-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 289 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1257 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-152 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1195 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
289 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
248 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

951 
WUUS53 KSGF 131859
SVRSGF
MOC029-065-105-125-131-161-169-132000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0168.160713T1859Z-160713T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
159 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DENT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  MARIES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHEASTERN LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
  PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTHEASTERN MILLER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 158 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF IBERIA TO NEAR RICHLAND...
  MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THERE ARE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND
           POWER LINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED BLOWN DOWN AROUND THE LAKE
           OF THE OZARKS AREA WITH THESE STORMS. SOME DAMAGE TO
           BOAT DOCKS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
           

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROLLA...                          FORT LEONARD WOOD...
  WAYNESVILLE...                    ST. ROBERT...
  ST. JAMES...                      RICHLAND...
  DIXON...                          BELLE...
  CROCKER...                        IBERIA...
  DOOLITTLE...                      VIENNA...
  NEWBURG...                        SAINT ELIZABETH...
  ST. ELIZABETH...                  EDGAR SPRINGS...
  STOUTLAND...                      LECOMA...
  LENOX...                          OZARK SPRINGS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 134 AND 169...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 200.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 9219 3829 9165 3816 9164 3815 9153
      3779 9153 3759 9175 3760 9183 3759 9203
      3760 9225 3765 9226 3770 9237 3774 9262
      3834 9222 3833 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 273DEG 49KT 3818 9215 3784 9250 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GRIFFIN
4 follow-up statements
283 
WWUS53 KSGF 131925
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOC029-105-131-131934-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
LACLEDE MO-MILLER MO-CAMDEN MO-
225 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LACLEDE...
SOUTHEASTERN MILLER AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3815 9164 3815 9153 3779 9153 3759 9175
      3760 9176 3761 9225 3765 9226 3772 9241
      3801 9241 3802 9240 3802 9219 3829 9219
      3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 273DEG 49KT 3816 9171 3782 9206 

$$

MOC065-125-161-169-132000-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
DENT MO-PHELPS MO-MARIES MO-PULASKI MO-
225 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT...PHELPS...MARIES AND PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 224 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF BELLE TO 6 MILES EAST OF ST.
ROBERT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED BY THESE
         STORMS NEAR THE OSAGE BEACH AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS
         AREA. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN.
         

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROLLA...                          FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...                    ST. ROBERT...
ST. JAMES...                      RICHLAND...
DIXON...                          BELLE...
CROCKER...                        DOOLITTLE...
VIENNA...                         NEWBURG...
EDGAR SPRINGS...                  LECOMA...
LENOX...                          OZARK SPRINGS...
JEROME...                         SWEDEBORG...
NORTHWYE...                       LAQUEY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 169...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 200.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 9164 3815 9153 3779 9153 3759 9175
      3760 9176 3761 9225 3765 9226 3772 9241
      3801 9241 3802 9240 3802 9219 3829 9219
      3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 273DEG 49KT 3816 9171 3782 9206 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GRIFFIN
755 
WWUS53 KSGF 131938
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOC065-125-161-169-132000-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
DENT MO-PHELPS MO-MARIES MO-PULASKI MO-
238 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT...PHELPS...EASTERN MARIES AND EASTERN PULASKI
COUNTIES...

AT 238 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ST. JAMES TO 7 MILES EAST OF ST. ROBERT...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN
         REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROLLA...                          FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...                    ST. ROBERT...
ST. JAMES...                      DIXON...
DOOLITTLE...                      NEWBURG...
EDGAR SPRINGS...                  NORTHWYE...
BEULAH...                         ANUTT...
DEVIL'S ELBOW...                  LECOMA...
LENOX...                          ROSATI...
JEROME...                         VICHY...
LAKE SPRING...                    

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 154 AND 169...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 200.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 9153 3759 9175 3760 9176 3761 9225
      3765 9226 3766 9226 3791 9227 3802 9206
      3829 9165 3815 9164 3815 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 275DEG 46KT 3800 9157 3781 9204 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GRIFFIN
983 
WWUS53 KSGF 131947
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOC125-169-131956-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
MARIES MO-PULASKI MO-
247 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MARIES AND EASTERN
PULASKI COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3759 9175 3760 9176 3761 9203 3799 9202
      3805 9182 3805 9164 3812 9163 3815 9153
      3779 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 273DEG 49KT 3799 9145 3781 9192 

$$

MOC065-161-132000-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
DENT MO-PHELPS MO-
247 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT AND PHELPS COUNTIES...

AT 246 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CUBA TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF NEWBURG...MOVING EAST AT
55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROLLA...                          ST. JAMES...
DOOLITTLE...                      NEWBURG...
EDGAR SPRINGS...                  NORTHWYE...
BEULAH...                         ANUTT...
ROSATI...                         LENOX...
LECOMA...                         JEROME...
LAKE SPRING...                    

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 NEAR MILE MARKER 169...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 171 AND 200.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9175 3760 9176 3761 9203 3799 9202
      3805 9182 3805 9164 3812 9163 3815 9153
      3779 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 273DEG 49KT 3799 9145 3781 9192 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GRIFFIN
690 
WWUS53 KSGF 131955
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOC065-161-132005-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
DENT MO-PHELPS MO-
255 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT AND PHELPS
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM CDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPRINGFIELD.

LAT...LON 3759 9175 3760 9176 3761 9203 3799 9202
      3805 9182 3805 9164 3812 9163 3815 9153
      3779 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 273DEG 49KT 3799 9145 3781 9192 

$$

GRIFFIN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 12:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 12:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFS...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

A complex of storms is currently spreading east across eastern
Kansas. Overall the trend with this line has been weakening.
However, with the heating of the day instability is starting to
increase and will continue to increase across the area. A nice
instability gradient is going to setup generally along the I-44
corridor over the next several hours.

Expect the line of storms to continue to track east and remain
along/just north of the instability axis and Theta-E gradient. As
the line moves east into the increasing instability late this
morning and this afternoon expect the line to increase in
intensity and race across the area, generally along and north of
Interstate 44. Wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the main risk
along with frequent lightning and brief heavy rain. A few of the
stronger updrafts will also be capable of hail up to the size of
quarters.

The outflow boundary from the current convection should lay out
from west to east this afternoon, roughly long Interstate 44 and
then slowly slide south. Storm development long this outflow will
be possible. These storms will likely not form into a line so hail
to the size of quarters and damaging straight line winds will be
possible. Will also have watch for additional storms developing
across Kansas and diving southeast into the area this afternoon
and tonight. The exact track of this will likely be dependent on
the track of the current convection, as it may affect locations
just south of this morning's line.

Heat index values may warm to around 105 degrees this
afternoon, after the storms/clouds clear from this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Scattered showers and storms were developing just north of the CWA
early this morning, generally along Interstate 70. A 50 kt low
level jet had developed and was nosing into Southern Kansas aiding
in this convection. An additional cluster of storms was in
Northwest Kansas moving eastward. Short term models have
struggled with handling convective chances tonight, however there
is some consensus that highest chances of showers and storms will
occur north of Interstate 44 and closer to Interstate 70.
Sufficient instability and wind shear is present that if storms
can congeal into an MCS and develop a cold pool that a damaging
wind threat would exist. Corfidi vectors are aligned north to
south so any cluster would move more southerly into our area.
High moisture content and training storm motions would allow for a
heavy rainfall threat if this materializes...

Just like Tuesday, the early morning convection will play havoc
with temperatures Today. Storms will likely impact the northern
half of the area during the morning hours before ending by
afternoon as warmer air aloft moves in from the west. Heat index
values across western Missouri and Southeast Kansas could come
close to 105 this afternoon however this is highly contingent on
morning convection/cloud cover.

The nocturnal low level jet will crank up again tonight, however
nosing more into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. A
passing mid level impulse will also likely aid in the development
of a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. If an MCS forms it
would likely track through the northeast half of the area with a
threat for damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. Both
the NAM and GFS show this occurring however placement issues
exist. The NAM shows a strong MCS with a deep cold pool moving
through most of the area overnight and this will bear watching for
the damaging wind threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

There will likely be some ongoing showers and storms Thursday
morning before shifting east and ending by late morning. 700mb
temps are forecasted to warm to near 15C on Thursday therefore
the airmass will likely be capped early on. By afternoon scattered
storms are forecast to form along a warm front somewhere near the
Kansas Oklahoma border as a subtle shortwave initiates convection
out there. Placement of this boundary will be key since ample
instability and 35 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear is
forecasted to develop by afternoon and evening. Storms will
likely grow upscale into an MCS and it appears that SE Kansas and
the southwest half of the area could be impacted by a severe MCS
Thursday evening, especially as the low level jet strengthens
overnight into Friday.

Ongoing storms are possible Friday morning with additional storm
chances Friday afternoon and evening as additional weak impulses
approach the area and interact with a moist and unstable airmass.
While several rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through this
week, it is unclear as to where each heavy round occurs. Some
locations will likely end up with a couple inches of rainfall
through week's end. Any flooding threat will likely be a mesoscale
forecast challenge.

Saturday into Sunday morning could feature the last of the precip
chances as a strong summer time high pressure aloft develops Sunday
through most of next week. Next week is looking hot and dry at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A complex of storms continues
to track east in central Missouri early this afternoon. The bulk
of the convection will remain north of the TAF sites with this
initial line.

An outflow boundary from the convection is moving south of the
convection and just passed through the KJLN area and will move
through the KSGF and KBBG sites early this afternoon. A wind shift
to the north/northwest will occur with the outflow and winds may
gust up to 25kt briefly. There may be a brief shower/rumble of
thunder on the outflow but over all not expecting much convection
at the TAF site with this system, the storms will remain to the
north overall. An hour or so after the front passage winds will
return to the south southwest.

This afternoon/evening the atmosphere should recover fairly
quickly after the passage of the outflow boundary with not much
convection occurring on the outflow across southern Missouri.
Additional storms may then develop across Kansas and dive south
southeast through the area this evening.

Overall VFR conditions will occur, expect with a passage of a
storm when MVFR and possibly IFR conditions can be expected
briefly.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 1:34 PM CDT, 25 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141845-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
134 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
  MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF
  THE AREA BY 4 PM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND
  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH
  THESE LINES OF STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
  BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

  HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS
  AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
  STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD BRING A BRIEF COOL DOWN
  AFTER THE STORMS PASS, BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR TEMPERATURES
  WILL QUICKLY WARM.

  ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS
  THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
  THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... LOCALLY
  HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
  MAIN RISKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH EVENING
  AND NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE CLOUD TO
  GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST COMMON
  HAZARDS...A DAMAGING WIND RISK IS POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND
  FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS ALSO CAPABLE
  OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. AT THIS TIME...IT
  APPEARS THAT THURSDAY NIGHT HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
  STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IF REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
  OCCUR OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...THEN FLOODING COULD EVENTUALLY
  BECOME A CONCERN.

  HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES
  WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
  MISSOURI THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
  TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 13, 10:42 AM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1042 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

KSZ073-097-131630-
CRAWFORD KS-BOURBON KS-
1042 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND BOURBON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1042 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LA HARPE TO NEAR
CHANUTE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
FORT SCOTT...                     GIRARD...
ARMA...                           MARMATON...
MULBERRY...                       FRANKLIN...
BRONSON...                        ARCADIA...
UNIONTOWN...                      WALNUT...
FULTON...                         REDFIELD...
HEPLER...                         MAPLETON...
BURGESS...                        PETERSBURG...
PORTERVILLE...                    GREENBUSH...
DEVON...                          BRAZILTON...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3803 9461 3750 9461 3748 9462
      3752 9509 3774 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 278DEG 49KT 3797 9526 3766 9541

GRIFFIN
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 11:16 AM CDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOZ066-077-131700-
BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
1116 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VERNON AND BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON CDT...

AT 1115 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FULTON TO 7 MILES EAST
OF HEPLER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
PRAIRIE STATE PARK...             NEVADA...
LAMAR...                          GOLDEN CITY...
LIBERAL...                        SHELDON...
MULBERRY...                       MINDENMINES...
MONTEVALLO...                     ARCADIA...
WALKER...                         SCHELL CITY...
BRONAUGH...                       LAMAR HEIGHTS...
MOUNDVILLE...                     RICHARDS...
MILO...                           DEERFIELD...
IRWIN...                          BURGESS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3802 9462 3806 9461 3805 9424 3803 9423
      3805 9421 3804 9419 3806 9413 3804 9411
      3805 9410 3803 9406 3736 9408 3748 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 263DEG 74KT 3796 9474 3764 9483

GRIFFIN
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 11:26 AM CDT, 2 hours 33 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

KSZ097-101-MOZ077-088-093-131730-
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-BARTON MO-NEWTON MO-
1126 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CRAWFORD...CHEROKEE...
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...JASPER AND SOUTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL
1230 PM CDT...

AT 1124 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF MCCUNE TO
NEAR ALTAMONT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. GUST FRONT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
JOPLIN...                         PITTSBURG...
CARTHAGE...                       WEBB CITY...
CARL JUNCTION...                  BAXTER SPRINGS...
FRONTENAC...                      COLUMBUS...
GALENA...                         ORONOGO...
CARTERVILLE...                    DUQUESNE...
DUENWEG...                        JASPER...
LOMA LINDA...                     CHEROKEE...
AIRPORT DRIVE...                  WEIR...
LEAWOOD...                        LOWELL...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 9508 3748 9462 3735 9408 3699 9443
      3700 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 280DEG 52KT 3746 9502 3721 9521

GRIFFIN
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 11:56 AM CDT, 2 hours 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOZ067-078-089-131800-
DADE MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CEDAR MO-
1156 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DADE...CEDAR AND ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1155 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RICH HILL TO
NEAR SHELDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
STOCKTON LAKE...                  STOCKTON STATE PARK...
TRUMAN LAKE...                    EL DORADO SPRINGS...
STOCKTON...                       APPLETON CITY...
OSCEOLA...                        LOWRY CITY...
DADEVILLE...                      JERICO SPRINGS...
COLLINS...                        ROSCOE...
ARCOLA...                         VISTA...
UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS...             GERSTER...
FILLEY...                         CEDAR SPRINGS...
MASTERS...                        MONEGAW SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3821 9351 3820 9350 3792 9351 3791 9357
      3783 9357 3783 9362 3743 9362 3744 9408
      3821 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 261DEG 40KT 3809 9431 3764 9421

GRIFFIN
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 12:02 PM CDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

MOZ055-056-067-069-131800-
BENTON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CAMDEN MO-MORGAN MO-
1202 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...NORTHEASTERN ST.
CLAIR...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1201 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SMITHTON TO 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LOWRY CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. BOATERS ON
TRUMAN LAKE AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS NEED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
LAKE OF THE OZARKS...             TRUMAN STATE PARK...
TRUMAN LAKE...                    LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK...
OSAGE BEACH...                    VERSAILLES...
VILLAGE OF FOUR SEASONS...        WARSAW...
LINCOLN...                        COLE CAMP...
STOVER...                         LAURIE...
LOWRY CITY...                     SUNRISE BEACH...
LINN CREEK...                     BARNETT...
SYRACUSE...                       GRAVOIS MILLS...
CLIMAX SPRINGS...                 IONIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

IF ON OR NEAR TRUMAN AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3843 9263 3835 9263
      3835 9269 3822 9270 3821 9265 3807 9268
      3806 9377 3821 9378 3821 9353 3851 9351
      3851 9330 3854 9329 3853 9307 3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 263DEG 33KT 3863 9317 3822 9362

GRIFFIN
Local storm report, Jul 13, 1:13 PM CDT, 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E FRISTOE             38.12N 93.22W
07/13/2016  E50 MPH          BENTON             MO   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH WINDS.

&&

MTERRY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 13, 11:16 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFBarton, Vernon44 min
Jul 13, 11:26 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFJasper64 min
Jul 13, 11:30 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFVernon45 min
Jul 13, 11:56 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFCedar, St. Clair64 min
Jul 13, 12:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFBenton, Morgan58 min
Jul 13, 12:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarton, Cedar, Dade, Hickory, Polk, St. Clair and 1 more60 min
Jul 13, 12:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBenton, Camden, Morgan, St. Clair57 min
Jul 13, 1:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBenton, Camden, Dallas, Hickory, Laclede, Maries and 3 more61 min
Jul 13, 1:47 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisorySGFBenton, Camden, Cedar, Dallas, Hickory, Morgan and 3 more3 hr
Jul 13, 4:16 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFCamden, Miller44 min
Jul 13, 5:38 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFDent52 min
Jul 13, 6:57 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFPulaski33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.