Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Springfield, MO
NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2016, 1:59 PM CDT for 7 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 61 min. 9 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 13, 2016, 1:59 PM CDT (18:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 13, 2016, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- NWS Springfield, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Camden County, MO, Dent County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2:05 PM CDT | TSTM WND GST 63 | Richland, MO | 63 MPH WIND GUST. |
| Jul 13, 2:15 PM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | St. Robert, MO | SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND ST. ROBERTS. |
| Jul 13, 2:15 PM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | Waynesville, MO | NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN THE WAYNESVILLE AREA. THERE WAS DAMAGE TO A FENCE AND MINOR DAMAGE TO A HOME. PICTURE WAS ON SOCIAL MEDIA. |
| Jul 13, 2:20 PM CDT | TSTM WND GST 61 | 1 N Vichy, MO | ASOS REPORTED WIND GUST OF 61 MPH. |
| Jul 13, 2:25 PM CDT | TSTM WND GST 70 | 4 S Newburg, MO | WINDS ESTIMATED UP TO 70 MPH. HEAVY RAIN 1.50 TO 1.74 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. |
| Jul 13, 2:30 PM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | 2 E Waynesville, MO | LARGE TREE AND LIMBS DOWN GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. 0.75 INCH HAIL ALSO. |
| Jul 13, 2:30 PM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | Rolla, MO | NUMEROUS LARGE TREE AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN ONTO CARS. ONE TREE WAS BLOWN ON TO A HOUSE CAUSING STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. |
| Jul 13, 2:35 PM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | 7 S Rolla, MO | NUMEROUS TREES AND SEVERAL POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. PICTURE FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR. |
| Jul 13, 2:50 PM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | Rolla, MO | DOWNED POWER LINES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 9 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 6 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 11:14 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1257 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -152 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1195 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 289 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 248 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.9
The text
As transmitted.
951
WUUS53 KSGF 131859
SVRSGF
MOC029-065-105-125-131-161-169-132000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0168.160713T1859Z-160713T2000Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
159 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DENT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
MARIES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN MILLER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT
* AT 158 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF IBERIA TO NEAR RICHLAND...
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THERE ARE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND
POWER LINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED BLOWN DOWN AROUND THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS AREA WITH THESE STORMS. SOME DAMAGE TO
BOAT DOCKS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROLLA... FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE... ST. ROBERT...
ST. JAMES... RICHLAND...
DIXON... BELLE...
CROCKER... IBERIA...
DOOLITTLE... VIENNA...
NEWBURG... SAINT ELIZABETH...
ST. ELIZABETH... EDGAR SPRINGS...
STOUTLAND... LECOMA...
LENOX... OZARK SPRINGS...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 134 AND 169...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 200.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
&&
LAT...LON 3829 9219 3829 9165 3816 9164 3815 9153
3779 9153 3759 9175 3760 9183 3759 9203
3760 9225 3765 9226 3770 9237 3774 9262
3834 9222 3833 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 273DEG 49KT 3818 9215 3784 9250
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
GRIFFIN4 follow-up statements
283
WWUS53 KSGF 131925
SVSSGF
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
MOC029-105-131-131934-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
LACLEDE MO-MILLER MO-CAMDEN MO-
225 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LACLEDE...
SOUTHEASTERN MILLER AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 3815 9164 3815 9153 3779 9153 3759 9175
3760 9176 3761 9225 3765 9226 3772 9241
3801 9241 3802 9240 3802 9219 3829 9219
3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 273DEG 49KT 3816 9171 3782 9206
$$
MOC065-125-161-169-132000-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
DENT MO-PHELPS MO-MARIES MO-PULASKI MO-
225 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT...PHELPS...MARIES AND PULASKI COUNTIES...
AT 224 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF BELLE TO 6 MILES EAST OF ST.
ROBERT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED BY THESE
STORMS NEAR THE OSAGE BEACH AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS
AREA. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROLLA... FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE... ST. ROBERT...
ST. JAMES... RICHLAND...
DIXON... BELLE...
CROCKER... DOOLITTLE...
VIENNA... NEWBURG...
EDGAR SPRINGS... LECOMA...
LENOX... OZARK SPRINGS...
JEROME... SWEDEBORG...
NORTHWYE... LAQUEY...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 169...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 200.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
&&
LAT...LON 3815 9164 3815 9153 3779 9153 3759 9175
3760 9176 3761 9225 3765 9226 3772 9241
3801 9241 3802 9240 3802 9219 3829 9219
3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 273DEG 49KT 3816 9171 3782 9206
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
GRIFFIN755
WWUS53 KSGF 131938
SVSSGF
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
MOC065-125-161-169-132000-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
DENT MO-PHELPS MO-MARIES MO-PULASKI MO-
238 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT...PHELPS...EASTERN MARIES AND EASTERN PULASKI
COUNTIES...
AT 238 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ST. JAMES TO 7 MILES EAST OF ST. ROBERT...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROLLA... FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE... ST. ROBERT...
ST. JAMES... DIXON...
DOOLITTLE... NEWBURG...
EDGAR SPRINGS... NORTHWYE...
BEULAH... ANUTT...
DEVIL'S ELBOW... LECOMA...
LENOX... ROSATI...
JEROME... VICHY...
LAKE SPRING...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 154 AND 169...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 200.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
&&
LAT...LON 3779 9153 3759 9175 3760 9176 3761 9225
3765 9226 3766 9226 3791 9227 3802 9206
3829 9165 3815 9164 3815 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 275DEG 46KT 3800 9157 3781 9204
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
GRIFFIN983
WWUS53 KSGF 131947
SVSSGF
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
MOC125-169-131956-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
MARIES MO-PULASKI MO-
247 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MARIES AND EASTERN
PULASKI COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 3759 9175 3760 9176 3761 9203 3799 9202
3805 9182 3805 9164 3812 9163 3815 9153
3779 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 273DEG 49KT 3799 9145 3781 9192
$$
MOC065-161-132000-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
DENT MO-PHELPS MO-
247 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT AND PHELPS COUNTIES...
AT 246 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CUBA TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF NEWBURG...MOVING EAST AT
55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROLLA... ST. JAMES...
DOOLITTLE... NEWBURG...
EDGAR SPRINGS... NORTHWYE...
BEULAH... ANUTT...
ROSATI... LENOX...
LECOMA... JEROME...
LAKE SPRING...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 NEAR MILE MARKER 169...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 171 AND 200.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
&&
LAT...LON 3759 9175 3760 9176 3761 9203 3799 9202
3805 9182 3805 9164 3812 9163 3815 9153
3779 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 273DEG 49KT 3799 9145 3781 9192
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
GRIFFIN690
WWUS53 KSGF 131955
SVSSGF
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
MOC065-161-132005-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-160713T2000Z/
DENT MO-PHELPS MO-
255 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DENT AND PHELPS
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM CDT...
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPRINGFIELD.
LAT...LON 3759 9175 3760 9176 3761 9203 3799 9202
3805 9182 3805 9164 3812 9163 3815 9153
3779 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 273DEG 49KT 3799 9145 3781 9192
$$
GRIFFINWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 12:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 12:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 ...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFS... .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1032 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016 A complex of storms is currently spreading east across eastern Kansas. Overall the trend with this line has been weakening. However, with the heating of the day instability is starting to increase and will continue to increase across the area. A nice instability gradient is going to setup generally along the I-44 corridor over the next several hours. Expect the line of storms to continue to track east and remain along/just north of the instability axis and Theta-E gradient. As the line moves east into the increasing instability late this morning and this afternoon expect the line to increase in intensity and race across the area, generally along and north of Interstate 44. Wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the main risk along with frequent lightning and brief heavy rain. A few of the stronger updrafts will also be capable of hail up to the size of quarters. The outflow boundary from the current convection should lay out from west to east this afternoon, roughly long Interstate 44 and then slowly slide south. Storm development long this outflow will be possible. These storms will likely not form into a line so hail to the size of quarters and damaging straight line winds will be possible. Will also have watch for additional storms developing across Kansas and diving southeast into the area this afternoon and tonight. The exact track of this will likely be dependent on the track of the current convection, as it may affect locations just south of this morning's line. Heat index values may warm to around 105 degrees this afternoon, after the storms/clouds clear from this morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016 Scattered showers and storms were developing just north of the CWA early this morning, generally along Interstate 70. A 50 kt low level jet had developed and was nosing into Southern Kansas aiding in this convection. An additional cluster of storms was in Northwest Kansas moving eastward. Short term models have struggled with handling convective chances tonight, however there is some consensus that highest chances of showers and storms will occur north of Interstate 44 and closer to Interstate 70. Sufficient instability and wind shear is present that if storms can congeal into an MCS and develop a cold pool that a damaging wind threat would exist. Corfidi vectors are aligned north to south so any cluster would move more southerly into our area. High moisture content and training storm motions would allow for a heavy rainfall threat if this materializes... Just like Tuesday, the early morning convection will play havoc with temperatures Today. Storms will likely impact the northern half of the area during the morning hours before ending by afternoon as warmer air aloft moves in from the west. Heat index values across western Missouri and Southeast Kansas could come close to 105 this afternoon however this is highly contingent on morning convection/cloud cover. The nocturnal low level jet will crank up again tonight, however nosing more into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. A passing mid level impulse will also likely aid in the development of a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. If an MCS forms it would likely track through the northeast half of the area with a threat for damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. Both the NAM and GFS show this occurring however placement issues exist. The NAM shows a strong MCS with a deep cold pool moving through most of the area overnight and this will bear watching for the damaging wind threat. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016 There will likely be some ongoing showers and storms Thursday morning before shifting east and ending by late morning. 700mb temps are forecasted to warm to near 15C on Thursday therefore the airmass will likely be capped early on. By afternoon scattered storms are forecast to form along a warm front somewhere near the Kansas Oklahoma border as a subtle shortwave initiates convection out there. Placement of this boundary will be key since ample instability and 35 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear is forecasted to develop by afternoon and evening. Storms will likely grow upscale into an MCS and it appears that SE Kansas and the southwest half of the area could be impacted by a severe MCS Thursday evening, especially as the low level jet strengthens overnight into Friday. Ongoing storms are possible Friday morning with additional storm chances Friday afternoon and evening as additional weak impulses approach the area and interact with a moist and unstable airmass. While several rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through this week, it is unclear as to where each heavy round occurs. Some locations will likely end up with a couple inches of rainfall through week's end. Any flooding threat will likely be a mesoscale forecast challenge. Saturday into Sunday morning could feature the last of the precip chances as a strong summer time high pressure aloft develops Sunday through most of next week. Next week is looking hot and dry at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016 For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A complex of storms continues to track east in central Missouri early this afternoon. The bulk of the convection will remain north of the TAF sites with this initial line. An outflow boundary from the convection is moving south of the convection and just passed through the KJLN area and will move through the KSGF and KBBG sites early this afternoon. A wind shift to the north/northwest will occur with the outflow and winds may gust up to 25kt briefly. There may be a brief shower/rumble of thunder on the outflow but over all not expecting much convection at the TAF site with this system, the storms will remain to the north overall. An hour or so after the front passage winds will return to the south southwest. This afternoon/evening the atmosphere should recover fairly quickly after the passage of the outflow boundary with not much convection occurring on the outflow across southern Missouri. Additional storms may then develop across Kansas and dive south southeast through the area this evening. Overall VFR conditions will occur, expect with a passage of a storm when MVFR and possibly IFR conditions can be expected briefly. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && MESOSCALE...Wise SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Wise
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 1:34 PM CDT, 25 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 134 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141845- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 134 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... ELEVATED HAIL RISK. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK. SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK. ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK. DISCUSSION... A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY 4 PM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE LINES OF STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD BRING A BRIEF COOL DOWN AFTER THE STORMS PASS, BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH EVENING AND NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST COMMON HAZARDS...A DAMAGING WIND RISK IS POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY NIGHT HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IF REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...THEN FLOODING COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A CONCERN. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE) THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER... HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) WISE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 10:42 AM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1042 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
KSZ073-097-131630-
CRAWFORD KS-BOURBON KS-
1042 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND BOURBON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...
AT 1042 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LA HARPE TO NEAR
CHANUTE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
FORT SCOTT... GIRARD...
ARMA... MARMATON...
MULBERRY... FRANKLIN...
BRONSON... ARCADIA...
UNIONTOWN... WALNUT...
FULTON... REDFIELD...
HEPLER... MAPLETON...
BURGESS... PETERSBURG...
PORTERVILLE... GREENBUSH...
DEVON... BRAZILTON...
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 3804 9508 3803 9461 3750 9461 3748 9462
3752 9509 3774 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 278DEG 49KT 3797 9526 3766 9541
GRIFFINSpecial weather statement, Jul 13, 11:16 AM CDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
MOZ066-077-131700-
BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
1116 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VERNON AND BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON CDT...
AT 1115 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FULTON TO 7 MILES EAST
OF HEPLER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
PRAIRIE STATE PARK... NEVADA...
LAMAR... GOLDEN CITY...
LIBERAL... SHELDON...
MULBERRY... MINDENMINES...
MONTEVALLO... ARCADIA...
WALKER... SCHELL CITY...
BRONAUGH... LAMAR HEIGHTS...
MOUNDVILLE... RICHARDS...
MILO... DEERFIELD...
IRWIN... BURGESS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.
&&
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 3802 9462 3806 9461 3805 9424 3803 9423
3805 9421 3804 9419 3806 9413 3804 9411
3805 9410 3803 9406 3736 9408 3748 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 263DEG 74KT 3796 9474 3764 9483
GRIFFINSpecial weather statement, Jul 13, 11:26 AM CDT, 2 hours 33 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
KSZ097-101-MOZ077-088-093-131730-
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-BARTON MO-NEWTON MO-
1126 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CRAWFORD...CHEROKEE...
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...JASPER AND SOUTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL
1230 PM CDT...
AT 1124 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF MCCUNE TO
NEAR ALTAMONT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. GUST FRONT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
JOPLIN... PITTSBURG...
CARTHAGE... WEBB CITY...
CARL JUNCTION... BAXTER SPRINGS...
FRONTENAC... COLUMBUS...
GALENA... ORONOGO...
CARTERVILLE... DUQUESNE...
DUENWEG... JASPER...
LOMA LINDA... CHEROKEE...
AIRPORT DRIVE... WEIR...
LEAWOOD... LOWELL...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 16.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.
&&
LAT...LON 3751 9508 3748 9462 3735 9408 3699 9443
3700 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 280DEG 52KT 3746 9502 3721 9521
GRIFFINSpecial weather statement, Jul 13, 11:56 AM CDT, 2 hours 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
MOZ067-078-089-131800-
DADE MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CEDAR MO-
1156 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DADE...CEDAR AND ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...
AT 1155 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RICH HILL TO
NEAR SHELDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
STOCKTON LAKE... STOCKTON STATE PARK...
TRUMAN LAKE... EL DORADO SPRINGS...
STOCKTON... APPLETON CITY...
OSCEOLA... LOWRY CITY...
DADEVILLE... JERICO SPRINGS...
COLLINS... ROSCOE...
ARCOLA... VISTA...
UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS... GERSTER...
FILLEY... CEDAR SPRINGS...
MASTERS... MONEGAW SPRINGS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.
&&
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 3821 9351 3820 9350 3792 9351 3791 9357
3783 9357 3783 9362 3743 9362 3744 9408
3821 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 261DEG 40KT 3809 9431 3764 9421
GRIFFINSpecial weather statement, Jul 13, 12:02 PM CDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
MOZ055-056-067-069-131800-
BENTON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CAMDEN MO-MORGAN MO-
1202 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...NORTHEASTERN ST.
CLAIR...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...
AT 1201 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SMITHTON TO 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LOWRY CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. BOATERS ON
TRUMAN LAKE AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS NEED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
LAKE OF THE OZARKS... TRUMAN STATE PARK...
TRUMAN LAKE... LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK...
OSAGE BEACH... VERSAILLES...
VILLAGE OF FOUR SEASONS... WARSAW...
LINCOLN... COLE CAMP...
STOVER... LAURIE...
LOWRY CITY... SUNRISE BEACH...
LINN CREEK... BARNETT...
SYRACUSE... GRAVOIS MILLS...
CLIMAX SPRINGS... IONIA...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
IF ON OR NEAR TRUMAN AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3843 9263 3835 9263
3835 9269 3822 9270 3821 9265 3807 9268
3806 9377 3821 9378 3821 9353 3851 9351
3851 9330 3854 9329 3853 9307 3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 263DEG 33KT 3863 9317 3822 9362
GRIFFINLocal storm report, Jul 13, 1:13 PM CDT, 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E FRISTOE 38.12N 93.22W
07/13/2016 E50 MPH BENTON MO PUBLIC
ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH WINDS.
&&
MTERRYThe office that day
Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 11:16 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Barton, Vernon | 44 min |
| Jul 13, 11:26 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Jasper | 64 min |
| Jul 13, 11:30 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Vernon | 45 min |
| Jul 13, 11:56 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Cedar, St. Clair | 64 min |
| Jul 13, 12:02 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Benton, Morgan | 58 min |
| Jul 13, 12:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barton, Cedar, Dade, Hickory, Polk, St. Clair and 1 more | 60 min |
| Jul 13, 12:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Benton, Camden, Morgan, St. Clair | 57 min |
| Jul 13, 1:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Benton, Camden, Dallas, Hickory, Laclede, Maries and 3 more | 61 min |
| Jul 13, 1:47 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | SGF | Benton, Camden, Cedar, Dallas, Hickory, Morgan and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 13, 4:16 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Camden, Miller | 44 min |
| Jul 13, 5:38 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Dent | 52 min |
| Jul 13, 6:57 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Pulaski | 33 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.