Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
456 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm and humid airmass remains over the region. a cold
front extends from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. The
front will move into the Ohio Valley tonight and Friday initiating
showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to move east,
stalling over the mid Atlantic Region this weekend and providing a
focus for occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...

Forecast area resides in a very warm humid airmass with surface
dewpoints in the 70s. Aloft, an upper level trough was moving into
the Great lakes and Ohio Valley. Convergence ahead of the
approaching trough will contribute to shower and thunderstorm
development from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Region,
this pattern persisting through this upcoming weekend.

The actual surface cold front is well upstream of the forecast
area attm. However, thunderstorms were abundant across the entire
region per outflow boundaries which continue to get generated from
MCS features developing and moving downstream into the high CAPE
airmass over the southeastern CONUS. Satellite imagery
indicates multiple boundaries from IN/KY/TN eastward into WV/VA
and western NC. These boundaries will be the focus for strong to
severe storms until loss of daytime heating. The area where
activity will be most favorable to continue during the overnight
will be over the Ohio Valley and into WV where stronger
westerlies aloft will continue to play tag with the higher CAPE
environment.

That being said, maintained high pops in the east until sunset,
before lowering. In the west, there will be a void between now and
sunset, before upstream storm activity threatens again between
sunset and midnight. Maintained at least chance pops west of the
Blue Ridge after midnight to account for lingering or additional
storms moving downstream from the Ohio Valley where thunderstorm
outflow boundaries will continue to go bump in the night.

Friday will likely be a repeat of Thursday with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Surface front will be
approaching from the northwest, so anticipate a continued threat
for strong to severe storms. Temperatures will remain quite warm
with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints in the U60 to L70s
ensure another uncomfortable day for outdoor work.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

The surface cold front is forecast to stall over the Mid-Atlantic
region Friday night into Saturday. It will make slow progression
toward the south through Sunday as high pressure starts building
into the area from the Ohio Valley. The result will be scattered
showers and storms across primarily the central and southeastern
portion of the area. By late Sunday night, the front will be far
enough south, and the influence of high moving into the area will
be strong enough to limit any precipitation to isolated showers
across the southeast part of the area.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

Monday into Tuesday, the area will start to be on the southeast flow
side of the axis of the surface high as it shifts to the east.
Concurrently, a strong cold front will approach the area from the
Ohio Valley and cross the area Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, high pressure will build into the area
and remain across the area into Thursday. Any lingering
precipitation will be isolated showers or storms at best during this
time frame.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be slightly
above average.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Blacksburg AWOS is not transmitting observations, so AMD NOT SKED
will remain appended to the KBCB TAF UFN.

High-res models and radar continue to paint picture for high confidence
in at least a tempo group for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Multiple mesoscale outflow boundaries are
interacting with the warm/humid airmass resulting in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Attm activity is disorganized,
but potential exists for line of storms to develop from the Ohio
valley per westerly winds increasing aloft allowing storms to line
up in a MCS fashion.

Anticipate activity to continue through the evening before
weakening after loss of daytime heating. Will maintain VCTS until
sunset for all terminals.

Overnight, patchy fog is possible, but not expecting anything
widespread. If there is IFR due to fog it would be very localized.

Extended aviation discussion...

The front will cross the area Friday with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms into Saturday.

The front hangs up somewhere over Virginia into the Carolina
through Monday and should keep the threat of showers and storms
around.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ042>044-507-
508-150800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
357 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS BOTH DAYS COULD
CONTAIN LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-150800-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
357 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAT INDEX WILL REACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND A FEW COULD
BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
528 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOOLWINE                36.78N 80.28W
07/14/2016                   PATRICK            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS BROUGHT DOWN SEVERAL TREES IN AND
            AROUND WOOLWINE TEMPORARILY CLOSING ROADWAYS.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
530 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N STUART              36.66N 80.28W
07/14/2016                   PATRICK            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS BROUGHT DOWN AT LEAST TWO TREES ALONG
            ROUTE 58 ON THE NORTH SIDE OF STUART, VA.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
532 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW FAIRY STONE STATE 36.78N 80.14W
07/14/2016                   PATRICK            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS BROUGHT DOWN TREES ALONG ROUTE 57 IN
            PATRICK COUNTY, VA

&&

JMORROW

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