Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Blacksburg, VA

892 
WWUS51 KRNK 142017
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
417 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

VAC067-089-141-142027-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-160714T2015Z/
PATRICK VA-FRANKLIN VA-HENRY VA-
417 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN PATRICK...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3674 8046 3675 8045 3674 8040 3676 8040
      3677 8039 3680 8039 3680 8036 3682 8034
      3700 7998 3674 7978 3663 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 247DEG 33KT 3693 7980 

$$

JR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
255 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm and humid airmass remains over the region. a cold
front extends from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. The
front will move into the Ohio Valley today initiating showers and
thunderstorms. The front will continue to move east, stalling
over the mid Atlantic Region this weekend and providing a focus
for occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Thursday...

Forecast area resides in a very warm humid airmass with surface
dewpoints in the 70s. Aloft, an upper level trough was moving into
the Great lakes and Ohio Valley. This will likely set the stage
for an active thunderstorm day as convergence increases ahead of
the approaching trough, the stronger westerlies aloft playing tag
with the very warm almost sultry airmass over the eastern CONUS.

Surface cold front is well upstream of the forecast area attm.
However, thunderstorms which initiated along this front yesterday
have raced east with multiple outflow boundaries noted in the
visible satellite imagery over WV/KY/TN. These boundaries will
likely be the focus for new deep convection this afternoon and
evening, the steering winds out of the west transferring this
activity over and east of the mountains this evening. The airmass
east of the mountains is going to heat significantly with forecast
temperatures reaching the mid 90s. With DCAPEs of 1000+,
environment will be favorable for damaging wind gusts.

Unlike the last couple of days where storms have been pulse
variety, this afternoon and evenings activity will be more
organized and may require need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. We
are on the very edge of the increasing westerlies aloft, and this
suggests storms will be moving along much faster today, the mean
wind increasing to about 20 kts. If a MCS evolves, then forward
speed may approach 30 kts which would certainly be problematic
within the heat sink that will reside downstream. Severe threat
would be damaging winds.

Aside from the thunderstorm threat, a heat hazard will exist. Heat
indices will likely reach 100 to 103 across southside VA vicinity
of Danville and South Boston with higher readings as you go east
toward the Tidewater. Dewpoints over eastern VA/NC are in the mid
70s. Combine this with forecast temperatures in the mid 90s to
upper 90s and ingredients are there for a sultry afternoon.

Tonight, the forecast hinges on eastward movement of thunderstorm
outflow boundaries with potential for storms to reach farther east
than model forecast. Kept POPs high this evening to account for
this potential, then backed off after midnight with loss of
daytime heating. Dewpoints tonight will remain near 70, so looking
at another muggy night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Upper trough across the Great Lakes Friday will pivot east and
deepen along the East Coast by Saturday night. A frontal boundary
will drop south on Friday into our region. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop especially Friday afternoon. SPC Day Two Convective
outlook has placed portions of our area in a marginal risk. Shear
will be weak, but Pwats will be high near 2 inches. The main threat
will be from damaging winds with the stronger updrafts. High
temperatures on Friday will range from the lower 80s in the
mountains to the lower 90s in the piedmont. Heat indices will climb
as high as the upper 90s to near 100 in the Piedmont.

The frontal boundary will stall across the region by Friday night.
Another reinforcing front will drop southeast into our area Friday
night into Saturday. This will result in rounds of showers and
thunderstorms corresponding to the passage of the fronts and then
the proximity to the stalled boundary. The best instabilities will
be located across the south.  Low temperatures Friday night will
generally be from the lower 60s in the west to the upper 60s in the
east.  High temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than Friday with
reading near normal from the upper 70s in the mountains to the upper
80s in the Piedmont. Low temperatures Saturday night will vary from
the lower 60s in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast given
the proximity of the stalled front. High pressure will build briefly
across the area Sunday night and Monday. An active weather pattern
returns late Monday through Wednesday as another series of front
head south into the region and stall, acting as the focus for
additional showers and thunderstorms. As the front slides south on
Thursday, drier air pushes into our region.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be around or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Blacksburg AWOS is not transmitting observations, so AMD NOT SKED
will remain appended to the KBCB TAF UFN.

High-res models and radar continue to paint picture for high confidence
in at least a tempo group for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Multiple mesoscale outflow boundaries are
interacting with the warm/humid airmass resulting in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Attm activity is disorganized,
but potential exists for line of storms to develop from the Ohio
valley per westerly winds increasing aloft allowing storms to line
up in a MCS fashion.

Anticipate activity to continue through the evening before
weakening after loss of daytime heating. Will maintain VCTS until
sunset for all terminals.

Overnight, patchy fog is possible, but not expecting anything
widespread. If there is IFR due to fog it would be very localized.

Extended aviation discussion...

The front will cross the area Friday with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms into Saturday.

The front hangs up somewhere over Virginia into the Carolina
through Monday and should keep the threat of showers and storms
around.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Blacksburg AWOS is not transmitting observations. Time of repair
is unknown.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ042>044-507-
508-150800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
357 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS BOTH DAYS COULD
CONTAIN LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-150800-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
357 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAT INDEX WILL REACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND A FEW COULD
BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNLOCALIZED SITE
245 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

VAZ033-034-045-141915-
CAMPBELL-BEDFORD-FRANKLIN-
245 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SMITH
MOUNTAIN LAKE...NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN...WESTERN CAMPBELL AND SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 243 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONETA TO WESTLAKE
CORNER TO BURNT CHIMNEY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONETA...HUDDLESTON...PENHOOK...NORTHWEST SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE...NORTH
SHORE...BURNT CHIMNEY...WESTLAKE CORNER...UNION HALL...
SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE STATE PARK...WIRTZ AND GOODVIEW.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE
OUT TO 10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3726 7932 3706 7943 3707 7948 3706 7949
      3702 7946 3701 7948 3704 7952 3704 7959
      3701 7961 3700 7968 3709 7999 3714 7978
      3725 7968
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 265DEG 14KT 3721 7966 3715 7971 3712 7983

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNLOCALIZED SITE
250 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

VAZ011-013-014-141930-
MONTGOMERY-PULASKI-GILES-
250 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...
SOUTHWESTERN GILES AND CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
RADFORD...

AT 249 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DUBLIN...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSBURG...CHRISTIANSBURG...RADFORD...PULASKI...DUBLIN...PRICES
FORK...FAIRLAWN...CLAYTOR DAM...MERRIMAC...CHILDRESS...WALTON AND
PARROTT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3707 8079 3719 8079 3727 8031 3706 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 267DEG 23KT 3713 8067

JDR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNLOCALIZED SITE
254 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

NCZ002>004-019-VAZ016-032-141945-
WILKES-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-CARROLL-PATRICK-
254 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SURRY...WEST CENTRAL STOKES...
NORTHEASTERN WILKES...EAST CENTRAL ALLEGHANY...SOUTHWESTERN PATRICK
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 253 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNTAIN
PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT AIRY...ELKIN...FAIRVIEW...FLAT ROCK...DOBSON...PILOT
MOUNTAIN...CANA...BOTTOM...MOUNTAIN PARK...PINE RIDGE...LEVEL
CROSS...ARARAT...LOW GAP...STATE ROAD...TOAST...WHITE PLAINS...
WOODVILLE...BENHAM...LAMBSBURG AND WESTFIELD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3627 8090 3648 8100 3666 8058 3641 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 244DEG 23KT 3645 8085

JDR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNLOCALIZED SITE
258 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

VAZ023-024-034-141930-
ROCKBRIDGE-BOTETOURT-BEDFORD-
258 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN AMHERST...SOUTH CENTRAL
ROCKBRIDGE...EAST CENTRAL BOTETOURT AND NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD
COUNTIES...

AT 258 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARCADIA...OR
NEAR BUCHANAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLASGOW...BIG ISLAND...SNOWDEN...COLEMAN FALLS...ARCADIA AND SEDALIA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3763 7946 3762 7943 3761 7944 3760 7943
      3761 7941 3759 7938 3754 7936 3749 7932
      3747 7960 3755 7965 3761 7956 3763 7948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 254DEG 16KT 3752 7957

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNLOCALIZED SITE
258 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

VAZ012>014-016-017-141930-
WYTHE-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CARROLL-PULASKI-
258 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...WEST
CENTRAL FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...EAST CENTRAL WYTHE AND
NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 258 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALLISONIA...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLISONIA...PATTERSON...INDIAN VALLEY...WILLIS...ALUM RIDGE...COPPER
VALLEY...SYLVATUS AND CHILDRESS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3680 8082 3693 8085 3710 8042 3687 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 252DEG 22KT 3690 8070

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKIN                   36.26N 80.85W
07/14/2016                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RESULTED IN A ROOF BLOWN OFF A
            BUSINESS WITHIN THE CITY OF ELKIN. UNKNOWN ORIGINAL
            STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF THE BUSINESS.

&&

JMORROW