Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
255 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm and humid airmass remains over the region. a cold
front extends from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. The
front will move into the Ohio Valley today initiating showers and
thunderstorms. The front will continue to move east, stalling
over the mid Atlantic Region this weekend and providing a focus
for occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Thursday...

Forecast area resides in a very warm humid airmass with surface
dewpoints in the 70s. Aloft, an upper level trough was moving into
the Great lakes and Ohio Valley. This will likely set the stage
for an active thunderstorm day as convergence increases ahead of
the approaching trough, the stronger westerlies aloft playing tag
with the very warm almost sultry airmass over the eastern CONUS.

Surface cold front is well upstream of the forecast area attm.
However, thunderstorms which initiated along this front yesterday
have raced east with multiple outflow boundaries noted in the
visible satellite imagery over WV/KY/TN. These boundaries will
likely be the focus for new deep convection this afternoon and
evening, the steering winds out of the west transferring this
activity over and east of the mountains this evening. The airmass
east of the mountains is going to heat significantly with forecast
temperatures reaching the mid 90s. With DCAPEs of 1000+,
environment will be favorable for damaging wind gusts.

Unlike the last couple of days where storms have been pulse
variety, this afternoon and evenings activity will be more
organized and may require need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. We
are on the very edge of the increasing westerlies aloft, and this
suggests storms will be moving along much faster today, the mean
wind increasing to about 20 kts. If a MCS evolves, then forward
speed may approach 30 kts which would certainly be problematic
within the heat sink that will reside downstream. Severe threat
would be damaging winds.

Aside from the thunderstorm threat, a heat hazard will exist. Heat
indices will likely reach 100 to 103 across southside VA vicinity
of Danville and South Boston with higher readings as you go east
toward the Tidewater. Dewpoints over eastern VA/NC are in the mid
70s. Combine this with forecast temperatures in the mid 90s to
upper 90s and ingredients are there for a sultry afternoon.

Tonight, the forecast hinges on eastward movement of thunderstorm
outflow boundaries with potential for storms to reach farther east
than model forecast. Kept POPs high this evening to account for
this potential, then backed off after midnight with loss of
daytime heating. Dewpoints tonight will remain near 70, so looking
at another muggy night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Upper trough across the Great Lakes Friday will pivot east and
deepen along the East Coast by Saturday night. A frontal boundary
will drop south on Friday into our region. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop especially Friday afternoon. SPC Day Two Convective
outlook has placed portions of our area in a marginal risk. Shear
will be weak, but Pwats will be high near 2 inches. The main threat
will be from damaging winds with the stronger updrafts. High
temperatures on Friday will range from the lower 80s in the
mountains to the lower 90s in the piedmont. Heat indices will climb
as high as the upper 90s to near 100 in the Piedmont.

The frontal boundary will stall across the region by Friday night.
Another reinforcing front will drop southeast into our area Friday
night into Saturday. This will result in rounds of showers and
thunderstorms corresponding to the passage of the fronts and then
the proximity to the stalled boundary. The best instabilities will
be located across the south.  Low temperatures Friday night will
generally be from the lower 60s in the west to the upper 60s in the
east.  High temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than Friday with
reading near normal from the upper 70s in the mountains to the upper
80s in the Piedmont. Low temperatures Saturday night will vary from
the lower 60s in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast given
the proximity of the stalled front. High pressure will build briefly
across the area Sunday night and Monday. An active weather pattern
returns late Monday through Wednesday as another series of front
head south into the region and stall, acting as the focus for
additional showers and thunderstorms. As the front slides south on
Thursday, drier air pushes into our region.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be around or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Blacksburg AWOS is not transmitting observations, so AMD NOT SKED
will remain appended to the KBCB TAF UFN.

High-res models and radar continue to paint picture for high confidence
in at least a tempo group for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Multiple mesoscale outflow boundaries are
interacting with the warm/humid airmass resulting in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Attm activity is disorganized,
but potential exists for line of storms to develop from the Ohio
valley per westerly winds increasing aloft allowing storms to line
up in a MCS fashion.

Anticipate activity to continue through the evening before
weakening after loss of daytime heating. Will maintain VCTS until
sunset for all terminals.

Overnight, patchy fog is possible, but not expecting anything
widespread. If there is IFR due to fog it would be very localized.

Extended aviation discussion...

The front will cross the area Friday with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms into Saturday.

The front hangs up somewhere over Virginia into the Carolina
through Monday and should keep the threat of showers and storms
around.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Blacksburg AWOS is not transmitting observations. Time of repair
is unknown.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...DS/KK
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ042>044-507-
508-150800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
357 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS BOTH DAYS COULD
CONTAIN LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-150800-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
357 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAT INDEX WILL REACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND A FEW COULD
BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKIN                   36.26N 80.85W
07/14/2016                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RESULTED IN A ROOF BLOWN OFF A
            BUSINESS WITHIN THE CITY OF ELKIN. UNKNOWN ORIGINAL
            STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF THE BUSINESS.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             5 E ROCKY MOUNT         37.00N 79.79W
07/14/2016  E0.88 INCH       FRANKLIN           VA   PUBLIC

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKIN                   36.26N 80.85W
07/14/2016                   SURRY              NC   NEWSPAPER

            5-6 TREES OF 2-3 FT. DIAMETER DOWN IN DOWNTOWN ELKIN.
            SEVERAL METAL LIGHT POLES BROKEN AND A WOODEN FENCE BLOWN
            DOWN. POWER OUTAGES IN TOWN.

&&

PC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>