Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
746 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track from the mid Mississippi Valley through the
mid Atlantic region which will bring a warm front through the
area today. High pressure will fill in behind this system for
Wednesday. Another low pressure system will cross through the
eastern United States on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Isolated/Scattered convection mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge
early this evening with wedge slowly eroding, but think as sun
sets wedge reestablishes itself until more organized convection
arrives overnight, though models are showing the line in KY
weakening as it shifts to the Blue Ridge.

Watching potential for gusty winds possibly svr with the line
moving into Far SW VA as best instability and support is mainly
from Srn WV southward to NE TN. Otherwise will keep higher pops in
the west this evening with less coverage in the east.

Previous afternoon discussion...

The wedge has been eroding across the mountains this afternoon,
but has remained stuck east of the Blue Ridge. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed across the mountains and will have
ample moisture to produce very heavy rain showers into this
evening. A line of stronger storms are tracking across Kentucky
and will move across southwestern Virginia and southeastern West
Virginia this evening. With PWATs running well above normal,
another round of heavy rain is possible in the watch area tonight.
Showers will likely hang around all night, then taper from north
to south Tuesday afternoon as a cold front seeps through the
region. With a slow moving front, temperatures will be able to
warm into the 80s across the mountains to near 90F in the
piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

During this portion of the forecast, our precipitation will
remain active. Tuesday night, the area will see a decease in
coverage as the disturbance from Tuesday exits the region.
However, the break in the activity will be short lived as another
disturbance starts encroaching on the western extent of the region
not too long after sunrise Wednesday. This pattern of disturbance
after disturbance will continue through at least Thursday night as
an upper ridge builds across the central portion of the nation,
and a west to northwest flow regime prevails over our region on
the east side of the upper ridge. Coverage each day is expected to
be greatest in the west.

Currently, the time frame with the greatest potential for showers
and storms to impact the largest coverage area is Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Temperatures during this time frame will be near normal regarding
high temperatures and five to ten degrees above normal for the
lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

The upper ridge in the central U.S. is progged to retrograde to
the Rockies while an upper low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region and moves to over New England. This pattern will keep us on
the warm, if not hot, and humid side heading into and through the
weekend. This cold front associated with the low/trough is progged
to cross our region Saturday or Sunday. Slightly cooler conditions
are expected Monday as confidence increases on cooler high
pressure moving into the area in the wake of the front.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the isolated to
scattered side, with the greatest coverage in the west, especially
on Friday and Saturday. Precipitation made be limited on Sunday if
in fact the cold front settles south of the area. Otherwise, a
stalled front will help maintain higher chances than currently
advertised.

Heat index values will reach or top 100 degrees Friday afternoon
across the southeast portion of the forecast area, and to a
slightly lesser extent Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Watching showers and thunderstorms across the mountains this
evening which will likely impact LWB/BLF by 01-02z reaching
BCB/ROA by 02-03z. Not as confident further east in thunder so
will have some showers at LYH/DAN with VCTS.

Low cigs should climb to MVFR with heavier showers and storms then
potentially see fog and or low clouds post line of showers late
tonight.

Confidence high that most will stay sub-VFR but lower in how low
cigs/vsbys drop.

Frontal boundary remain in the vicinity Tuesday so another day of
scattered convection expected mainly in the mountains. Overall
looking at ceilings improving to VFR by mid morning.

Extended discussion...

Front should be north midweek but still possible scattered storms
in the afternoon. Mainly VFR expected with potential sub-VFR late
night and with storms. A better chance of storms arrives Thursday
with another upper disturbance followed by typical summer diurnal
convection into the weekend, so overall mainly VFR Fri-Sat outside
convection and late night fog, with better threat of sub-VFR
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Precipitable water values rise into the 1.5 to 2.0 range today.
repeated periods of showers and thunderstorms will increase the
threat for flash flooding into tonight in southeast West Virginia
through the Alleghany Highlands.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for VAZ011-018>020-
     023-024.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RCS/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
533 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012>017-022-032>035-043>047-058-
059-051000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
533 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISK IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
REPEATED STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO QUICK RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ011-018>020-023-024-WVZ042>044-507-508-051000-
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
533 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITIONAL THE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
REPEATED STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO QUICK RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
949 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE MATOAKA           37.44N 81.24W
07/04/2016                   MERCER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 10 NEAR HIAWATHA.

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N BLUEFIELD           37.31N 81.26W
07/04/2016                   MERCER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG U.S. 52 IN BLUEWELL.

0857 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE CAMP CREEK        37.46N 81.01W
07/04/2016                   MERCER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 20 NEAR SPEEDWAY.

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
949 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

VAZ018-019-WVZ044-507-050245-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY-EASTERN GREENBRIER-MONROE-
949 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN CRAIG...WESTERN ALLEGHANY...SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER AND
NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 948 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR RONCEVERTE...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEGHANY...
LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
RONCEVERTE...
AND JORDAN MINES.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3796 8004 3795 8005 3795 8004 3765 8002
      3763 8003 3758 8001 3767 8062 3783 8064
      3786 8061 3798 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 265DEG 34KT 3777 8054

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
951 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCZ003-004-050245-
SURRY-STOKES-
951 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SURRY AND WESTERN
STOKES COUNTIES...

AT 950 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER PILOT MOUNTAIN STATE
PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PILOT MOUNTAIN...
WALNUT COVE...
DANBURY...
FRANCISCO...
AND KING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3626 8047 3626 8054 3628 8054 3629 8055
      3635 8059 3655 8034 3655 8031 3626 8012
      3626 8045 3625 8045 3625 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 242DEG 8KT 3632 8051

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCZ001>003-019-VAZ012-013-015>017-050315-
WILKES-ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-WYTHE-FLOYD-CARROLL-PULASKI-GRAYSON-
1017 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
WILKES...ALLEGHANY...EAST CENTRAL ASHE...SOUTHEASTERN
PULASKI...EASTERN GRAYSON...SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD...SOUTHEASTERN
WYTHE...CITY OF GALAX AND CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 1017 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DUBLIN TO BYLLESBY TO NEAR SCOTTVILLE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD-T0-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PULASKI...
GALAX...
HILLSVILLE...
DUBLIN...
AND SPARTA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3641 8148 3680 8099 3715 8067 3705 8054
      3704 8055 3705 8056 3699 8055 3700 8052
      3701 8052 3699 8050 3699 8047 3685 8029
      3683 8034 3681 8035 3680 8039 3676 8040
      3675 8045 3634 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 272DEG 34KT 3710 8067 3680 8092 3646 8135

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1025 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

VAZ022-050330-
ROANOKE-
1025 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
CITY OF SALEM...EASTERN ROANOKE AND CITY OF ROANOKE COUNTIES...

AT 1025 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ROANOKE...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE...
SALEM...
VINTON...
ROANOKE MOUNTAIN...
AND CAVE SPRING.

THIS INCLUDES THE SALEM FAIRGROUNDS AND ROANOKE REGIONAL AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3733 7987 3730 7984 3727 7986 3723 7984
      3722 7985 3721 7988 3716 7991 3714 7996
      3714 7999 3715 7999 3715 8000 3717 8000
      3717 8002 3726 8011 3738 7999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 268DEG 29KT 3727 8001

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

VAZ022-033-034-044-050315-
ROANOKE-BEDFORD-PITTSYLVANIA-FRANKLIN-
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN ROANOKE...NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN AND BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 1035 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER VINTON...MOVING EAST
AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VINTON...
BEDFORD...
BOONES MILL...
STEWARTSVILLE...
AND HUDDLESTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE
OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3713 7940 3712 7938 3712 7940 3706 7944
      3706 7941 3709 7940 3709 7939 3694 7946
      3709 7998 3732 7986 3731 7985 3734 7979
      3737 7978 3737 7926
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 263DEG 46KT 3724 7986

JJM