Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
746 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track from the mid Mississippi Valley through the
mid Atlantic region which will bring a warm front through the
area today. High pressure will fill in behind this system for
Wednesday. Another low pressure system will cross through the
eastern United States on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Isolated/Scattered convection mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge
early this evening with wedge slowly eroding, but think as sun
sets wedge reestablishes itself until more organized convection
arrives overnight, though models are showing the line in KY
weakening as it shifts to the Blue Ridge.

Watching potential for gusty winds possibly svr with the line
moving into Far SW VA as best instability and support is mainly
from Srn WV southward to NE TN. Otherwise will keep higher pops in
the west this evening with less coverage in the east.

Previous afternoon discussion...

The wedge has been eroding across the mountains this afternoon,
but has remained stuck east of the Blue Ridge. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed across the mountains and will have
ample moisture to produce very heavy rain showers into this
evening. A line of stronger storms are tracking across Kentucky
and will move across southwestern Virginia and southeastern West
Virginia this evening. With PWATs running well above normal,
another round of heavy rain is possible in the watch area tonight.
Showers will likely hang around all night, then taper from north
to south Tuesday afternoon as a cold front seeps through the
region. With a slow moving front, temperatures will be able to
warm into the 80s across the mountains to near 90F in the
piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

During this portion of the forecast, our precipitation will
remain active. Tuesday night, the area will see a decease in
coverage as the disturbance from Tuesday exits the region.
However, the break in the activity will be short lived as another
disturbance starts encroaching on the western extent of the region
not too long after sunrise Wednesday. This pattern of disturbance
after disturbance will continue through at least Thursday night as
an upper ridge builds across the central portion of the nation,
and a west to northwest flow regime prevails over our region on
the east side of the upper ridge. Coverage each day is expected to
be greatest in the west.

Currently, the time frame with the greatest potential for showers
and storms to impact the largest coverage area is Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Temperatures during this time frame will be near normal regarding
high temperatures and five to ten degrees above normal for the
lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

The upper ridge in the central U.S. is progged to retrograde to
the Rockies while an upper low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region and moves to over New England. This pattern will keep us on
the warm, if not hot, and humid side heading into and through the
weekend. This cold front associated with the low/trough is progged
to cross our region Saturday or Sunday. Slightly cooler conditions
are expected Monday as confidence increases on cooler high
pressure moving into the area in the wake of the front.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the isolated to
scattered side, with the greatest coverage in the west, especially
on Friday and Saturday. Precipitation made be limited on Sunday if
in fact the cold front settles south of the area. Otherwise, a
stalled front will help maintain higher chances than currently
advertised.

Heat index values will reach or top 100 degrees Friday afternoon
across the southeast portion of the forecast area, and to a
slightly lesser extent Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Watching showers and thunderstorms across the mountains this
evening which will likely impact LWB/BLF by 01-02z reaching
BCB/ROA by 02-03z. Not as confident further east in thunder so
will have some showers at LYH/DAN with VCTS.

Low cigs should climb to MVFR with heavier showers and storms then
potentially see fog and or low clouds post line of showers late
tonight.

Confidence high that most will stay sub-VFR but lower in how low
cigs/vsbys drop.

Frontal boundary remain in the vicinity Tuesday so another day of
scattered convection expected mainly in the mountains. Overall
looking at ceilings improving to VFR by mid morning.

Extended discussion...

Front should be north midweek but still possible scattered storms
in the afternoon. Mainly VFR expected with potential sub-VFR late
night and with storms. A better chance of storms arrives Thursday
with another upper disturbance followed by typical summer diurnal
convection into the weekend, so overall mainly VFR Fri-Sat outside
convection and late night fog, with better threat of sub-VFR
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Precipitable water values rise into the 1.5 to 2.0 range today.
repeated periods of showers and thunderstorms will increase the
threat for flash flooding into tonight in southeast West Virginia
through the Alleghany Highlands.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for VAZ011-018>020-
     023-024.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RCS/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
533 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012>017-022-032>035-043>047-058-
059-051000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
533 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISK IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
REPEATED STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO QUICK RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ011-018>020-023-024-WVZ042>044-507-508-051000-
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
533 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITIONAL THE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
REPEATED STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO QUICK RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

VAZ007-042330-
TAZEWELL-
710 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY...

AT 709 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIGHTNING WAS NEAR RAVEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICHLANDS...
CEDAR BLUFF...
ASBERRYS...
CLIFFIELD...
AND CLAYPOOL HILL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3720 8168 3701 8151 3696 8170 3698 8171
      3697 8172 3696 8175 3696 8178 3705 8182
      3708 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 240DEG 30KT 3701 8187

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
719 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

WVZ507-508-050000-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
719 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
AFFECT GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 717 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF RICHWOOD TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
RAINELLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND PEA SIZE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS. THIS
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEWISBURG...
RONCEVERTE...
RAINELLE...
RUPERT...
AND QUINWOOD.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3822 8036 3811 8036 3804 8026 3804 8016
      3805 8011 3774 8049 3783 8075 3787 8080
      3787 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077 3799 8079
      3801 8079 3809 8067 3824 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 267DEG 21KT 3820 8040 3792 8089

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

VAZ007-WVZ042-050100-
TAZEWELL-MERCER-
800 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
TAZEWELL AND MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 757 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF HANOVER TO NEAR DAVENPORT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS. AN UPGRADE TO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED IF STRENGTHENING TAKES PLACE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRINCETON...
RICHLANDS...
BLUEFIELD...
TAZEWELL...
AND CEDAR BLUFF.

THIS INCLUDES MERCER COUNTY AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3724 8174 3721 8156 3727 8142 3742 8128
      3746 8131 3760 8114 3743 8086 3734 8086
      3722 8128 3717 8126 3715 8133 3709 8127
      3704 8146 3699 8148 3700 8148 3702 8147
      3693 8168 3698 8171 3696 8178 3711 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 265DEG 44KT 3744 8178 3715 8206

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
803 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

VAZ012-013-016-050030-
WYTHE-CARROLL-PULASKI-
803 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI...EASTERN WYTHE AND NORTHWESTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES...

AT 802 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CRIPPLE CREEK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLISONIA...
MAX MEADOWS...
PATTERSON...
GUNTON PARK...
AND IVANHOE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3707 8084 3686 8066 3679 8103 3680 8104
      3680 8106 3678 8109 3678 8108 3677 8109
      3677 8111 3685 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 240DEG 36KT 3685 8107

JJM