Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
746 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track from the mid Mississippi Valley through the
mid Atlantic region which will bring a warm front through the
area today. High pressure will fill in behind this system for
Wednesday. Another low pressure system will cross through the
eastern United States on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Isolated/Scattered convection mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge
early this evening with wedge slowly eroding, but think as sun
sets wedge reestablishes itself until more organized convection
arrives overnight, though models are showing the line in KY
weakening as it shifts to the Blue Ridge.

Watching potential for gusty winds possibly svr with the line
moving into Far SW VA as best instability and support is mainly
from Srn WV southward to NE TN. Otherwise will keep higher pops in
the west this evening with less coverage in the east.

Previous afternoon discussion...

The wedge has been eroding across the mountains this afternoon,
but has remained stuck east of the Blue Ridge. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed across the mountains and will have
ample moisture to produce very heavy rain showers into this
evening. A line of stronger storms are tracking across Kentucky
and will move across southwestern Virginia and southeastern West
Virginia this evening. With PWATs running well above normal,
another round of heavy rain is possible in the watch area tonight.
Showers will likely hang around all night, then taper from north
to south Tuesday afternoon as a cold front seeps through the
region. With a slow moving front, temperatures will be able to
warm into the 80s across the mountains to near 90F in the
piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

During this portion of the forecast, our precipitation will
remain active. Tuesday night, the area will see a decease in
coverage as the disturbance from Tuesday exits the region.
However, the break in the activity will be short lived as another
disturbance starts encroaching on the western extent of the region
not too long after sunrise Wednesday. This pattern of disturbance
after disturbance will continue through at least Thursday night as
an upper ridge builds across the central portion of the nation,
and a west to northwest flow regime prevails over our region on
the east side of the upper ridge. Coverage each day is expected to
be greatest in the west.

Currently, the time frame with the greatest potential for showers
and storms to impact the largest coverage area is Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Temperatures during this time frame will be near normal regarding
high temperatures and five to ten degrees above normal for the
lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

The upper ridge in the central U.S. is progged to retrograde to
the Rockies while an upper low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region and moves to over New England. This pattern will keep us on
the warm, if not hot, and humid side heading into and through the
weekend. This cold front associated with the low/trough is progged
to cross our region Saturday or Sunday. Slightly cooler conditions
are expected Monday as confidence increases on cooler high
pressure moving into the area in the wake of the front.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the isolated to
scattered side, with the greatest coverage in the west, especially
on Friday and Saturday. Precipitation made be limited on Sunday if
in fact the cold front settles south of the area. Otherwise, a
stalled front will help maintain higher chances than currently
advertised.

Heat index values will reach or top 100 degrees Friday afternoon
across the southeast portion of the forecast area, and to a
slightly lesser extent Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Watching showers and thunderstorms across the mountains this
evening which will likely impact LWB/BLF by 01-02z reaching
BCB/ROA by 02-03z. Not as confident further east in thunder so
will have some showers at LYH/DAN with VCTS.

Low cigs should climb to MVFR with heavier showers and storms then
potentially see fog and or low clouds post line of showers late
tonight.

Confidence high that most will stay sub-VFR but lower in how low
cigs/vsbys drop.

Frontal boundary remain in the vicinity Tuesday so another day of
scattered convection expected mainly in the mountains. Overall
looking at ceilings improving to VFR by mid morning.

Extended discussion...

Front should be north midweek but still possible scattered storms
in the afternoon. Mainly VFR expected with potential sub-VFR late
night and with storms. A better chance of storms arrives Thursday
with another upper disturbance followed by typical summer diurnal
convection into the weekend, so overall mainly VFR Fri-Sat outside
convection and late night fog, with better threat of sub-VFR
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Precipitable water values rise into the 1.5 to 2.0 range today.
repeated periods of showers and thunderstorms will increase the
threat for flash flooding into tonight in southeast West Virginia
through the Alleghany Highlands.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for VAZ011-018>020-
     023-024.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RCS/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
533 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012>017-022-032>035-043>047-058-
059-051000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
533 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISK IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
REPEATED STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO QUICK RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ011-018>020-023-024-WVZ042>044-507-508-051000-
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
533 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITIONAL THE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
REPEATED STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO QUICK RISES OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
904 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

VAZ013-014-050200-
MONTGOMERY-PULASKI-
904 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...CITY OF
RADFORD AND CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 903 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER RADFORD CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSBURG...
CHRISTIANSBURG...
RADFORD...
SHAWSVILLE...
AND PRICES FORK.

THIS INCLUDES VIRGINIA TECH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3717 8018 3705 8055 3717 8062 3732 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 242DEG 38KT 3714 8049

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
928 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCZ001-018-VAZ009-015-050230-
WATAUGA-ASHE-SMYTH-GRAYSON-
928 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
WATAUGA...NORTHWESTERN ASHE...WESTERN GRAYSON AND SOUTHERN SMYTH
COUNTIES...

AT 928 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHILHOWIE TO NEAR WHITETOP TO NEAR MOUNTAIN
CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...
CHILHOWIE...
LANSING...
WHITETOP...
AND MOUNT ROGERS NATIONAL RECREATION AREA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3634 8171 3641 8174 3647 8170 3653 8171
      3659 8168 3661 8165 3662 8162 3664 8161
      3664 8162 3679 8170 3683 8174 3686 8174
      3680 8128 3677 8127 3657 8132 3657 8135
      3655 8135 3630 8171 3634 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 285DEG 32KT 3678 8166 3663 8165 3650 8177

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
943 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCZ001-018-019-050245-
WILKES-WATAUGA-ASHE-
943 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WILKES...EAST CENTRAL
WATAUGA AND SOUTHEASTERN ASHE COUNTIES...

AT 942 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER FLEETWOOD...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH WILKESBORO...
WILKESBORO...
WILBAR...
MC GRADY...
AND GLENDALE SPRINGS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3626 8161 3634 8160 3637 8125 3636 8125
      3638 8123 3639 8108 3612 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 274DEG 15KT 3630 8154

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
947 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

VAZ013-050230-
PULASKI-
947 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
PULASKI COUNTY...

AT 946 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER DUBLIN...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RADFORD...
PULASKI...
DUBLIN...
ALLISONIA...
AND FAIRLAWN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3718 8080 3724 8061 3721 8061 3718 8059
      3721 8053 3720 8051 3718 8057 3714 8053
      3715 8056 3712 8060 3708 8058 3706 8055
      3704 8054 3705 8057 3699 8054 3690 8068
      3688 8074 3703 8089 3711 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 275DEG 35KT 3713 8071

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
949 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE MATOAKA           37.44N 81.24W
07/04/2016                   MERCER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 10 NEAR HIAWATHA.

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N BLUEFIELD           37.31N 81.26W
07/04/2016                   MERCER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG U.S. 52 IN BLUEWELL.

0857 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE CAMP CREEK        37.46N 81.01W
07/04/2016                   MERCER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 20 NEAR SPEEDWAY.

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
949 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

VAZ018-019-WVZ044-507-050245-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY-EASTERN GREENBRIER-MONROE-
949 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN CRAIG...WESTERN ALLEGHANY...SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER AND
NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 948 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR RONCEVERTE...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEGHANY...
LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
RONCEVERTE...
AND JORDAN MINES.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3796 8004 3795 8005 3795 8004 3765 8002
      3763 8003 3758 8001 3767 8062 3783 8064
      3786 8061 3798 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 265DEG 34KT 3777 8054

JJM