Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Blacksburg, VA

June 16, 20165 counties in Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 16, 2016, 9:14 PM EDT for 5 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 61 min. 10 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2016, 9:14 PM EDT (01:14 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2016, 10:15 PM EDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Campbell County, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 16, 9:25 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 Wsw Falconerville, VA	WINDS BLEW A BARN OVER GREEN HILL ROAD.
Jun 16, 9:40 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Ene Forest, VA	MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN ON BREEZEWOOD DRIVE.
Jun 16, 9:44 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Ene Forest, VA	TREE DOWN ON BREEZEWOOD DRIVE.
Jun 16, 9:50 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Sse Forest, VA	SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN. SEVEN TO TEN HOMES ON TIMBERLAKE DRIVE WERE DAMAGED BY TREES FALLING ON THEM...TRAPPING PEOPLE. AN ESTIMATED 50 TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS CAMPBELL COUNTY.
Jun 16, 9:50 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 Ese Evington, VA	TREES DOWN ON MASON MILL ROAD.
Jun 16, 9:52 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Ene Forest, VA	TREE DOWN ON GRAVES MILL ROAD.
Jun 16, 9:52 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	W Evington, VA	LARGE LIMBS DOWN.
Jun 16, 10:10 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 Ese Forest, VA	LARGE TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF WEXFORD AND LEEVILLE ROAD.
Jun 16, 10:11 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 Ese Forest, VA	LARGE TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF GREENVIEW AND PORTICO STREET.
Jun 16, 10:20 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 N Hurt, VA	TREES BLOWN DOWN ON ALLEN ROAD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 9 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 11 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 16, 1:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 17 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 736 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1691 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 174 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 285 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 8.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

160 
WUUS51 KRNK 170114
SVRRNK
VAC009-011-019-031-680-170215-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0095.160617T0114Z-160617T0215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
914 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN APPOMATTOX COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...
  SOUTH CENTRAL AMHERST COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...
  CAMPBELL COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...
  THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG IN VIRGINIA...
  BEDFORD COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 913 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEW GLASGOW TO COLEMAN FALLS TO NEAR LITHIA...MOVING
  SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYNCHBURG...
  BEDFORD...
  ALTAVISTA...
  APPOMATTOX...
  AND HURT. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS 
LIBERTY UNIVERSITY...THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL...AND LYNCHBURG
AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 7885 3720 7882 3702 7891 3709 7913
      3705 7919 3713 7925 3710 7930 3714 7934
      3706 7941 3706 7949 3701 7948 3723 7978
      3722 7985 3726 7985 3732 7984 3746 7956
      3734 7934 3756 7917 3728 7866
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 332DEG 25KT 3761 7899 3748 7931 3747 7972 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM

3 follow-up statements

536 
WWUS51 KRNK 170151
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
951 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAC009-170200-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160617T0215Z/
AMHERST VA-
951 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
SOUTH CENTRAL AMHERST COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
VIRGINIA.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3721 7885 3702 7891 3709 7913 3705 7919
      3712 7921 3710 7929 3714 7934 3706 7941
      3706 7949 3701 7948 3725 7985 3732 7984
      3734 7934 3741 7914 3739 7906 3742 7907
      3746 7899 3728 7866
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 332DEG 25KT 3738 7884 3725 7916 3724 7957 

$$

VAC011-019-031-680-170215-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160617T0215Z/
APPOMATTOX VA-CAMPBELL VA-CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-BEDFORD VA-
951 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT
FOR
SOUTHERN APPOMATTOX...CAMPBELL AND SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE
CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

AT 950 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM APPOMATTOX TO NEAR RUSTBURG TO NEAR MONETA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
BEDFORD...
ALTAVISTA...
APPOMATTOX...
AND HURT. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS 
LIBERTY UNIVERSITY...THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL...AND LYNCHBURG
AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT
STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 7885 3702 7891 3709 7913 3705 7919
      3712 7921 3710 7929 3714 7934 3706 7941
      3706 7949 3701 7948 3725 7985 3732 7984
      3734 7934 3741 7914 3739 7906 3742 7907
      3746 7899 3728 7866
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 332DEG 25KT 3738 7884 3725 7916 3724 7957 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM

388 
WWUS51 KRNK 170202
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAC680-170211-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160617T0215Z/
CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-
1002 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
THE SOUTHERN CITY OF LYNCHBURG IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3721 7885 3702 7891 3709 7913 3705 7919
      3712 7921 3710 7929 3714 7934 3706 7941
      3706 7949 3701 7948 3725 7985 3727 7981
      3729 7931 3731 7918 3738 7898 3724 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 332DEG 25KT 3732 7880 3719 7912 3718 7953 

$$

VAC011-019-031-170215-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160617T0215Z/
APPOMATTOX VA-CAMPBELL VA-BEDFORD VA-
1002 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT
FOR
SOUTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX...CAMPBELL AND SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 1001 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM EVERGREEN TO NEAR GLADYS TO NEAR HUDDLESTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTAVISTA...
HURT...
BROOKNEAL...
RUSTBURG...
AND STEWARTSVILLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT
STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 7885 3702 7891 3709 7913 3705 7919
      3712 7921 3710 7929 3714 7934 3706 7941
      3706 7949 3701 7948 3725 7985 3727 7981
      3729 7931 3731 7918 3738 7898 3724 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 332DEG 25KT 3732 7880 3719 7912 3718 7953 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM

294 
WWUS51 KRNK 170210
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAC011-019-031-170220-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160617T0215Z/
APPOMATTOX VA-CAMPBELL VA-BEDFORD VA-
1010 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX...CAMPBELL AND SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1015 PM EDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3721 7885 3702 7891 3709 7913 3705 7919
      3712 7921 3710 7929 3714 7934 3706 7941
      3706 7949 3701 7948 3725 7985 3727 7981
      3729 7931 3731 7918 3738 7898 3724 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 332DEG 25KT 3732 7880 3719 7912 3718 7953 

$$

JJM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 16, 7:02 PM EDT, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 7:02 PM EDT, 2 hours 12 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
702 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous upper level disturbance was centered over northeast Ohio.
This feature will move southeast, crossing the Mid-Atlantic States
tonight and Friday. Thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected
along the leading edge of this disturbance with a risk of severe
weather...the primary focus across the Virginias through early
tonight. Aside for lingering showers Friday, High pressure will
build into the region for the weekend providing fair weather which
will last into the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 261 is in effect until 10 PM for
counties just north of highway 460 to focus on inbound
thunderstorms from central West Virginia. These storms have had a
history of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A Vigorous short wave, compact upper level low, will move from
eastern Ohio this evening, into the Virginias tonight. At the
surface, low pressure was centered near Pittsburgh, PA, with a
cold extending south from the low into Central West Virginia,
then southwest into central Kentucky. This front was moving
rapidly to the southeast. A solid line of thunderstorms has
developed along the leading edge of the front from Latrobe
Pennsylvania, to Beckley, West Virginia. Farther southwest along
the front...the storm cells were more discrete with some rotation
exhibited.

The Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) which has developed over
northern and central WV is forecast to move east, crossing the
highlands of VA between now and 8PM, then continue to progress
east through northern...and central Virginia between
8-10PM...a track that will take it primarily north of highway
460. Damaging straight line winds is the primary threat, but
certainly can't rule out an isolated tornado per backing low level
winds on the east side of the Appalachians which will result in
increasing directional shear.

Farther southwest along the front (SW of BKW), there is still
considerable uncertainty as to whether the trailing convection,
which is more discrete in nature (individual cells) will become
organized. The RNK 18 UTC sounding was well mixed and contained
considerably less upper level moisture to sustain deeper
thermals...a PWAT of 0.80. That said, these discrete cells will
still have the potential for rotation which could result in large
hail and isolated damaging wind gusts.

All things considered, will maintain focus for organized severe
weather from highway 460 and points north, and hold off on
expanding the severe thunderstorm watch any farther south unless
the storms become more organized. The airmass over western North
Carolina into extreme southern VA remains well mixed and cloud
free denoting the dry air which was sampled in the 18 UTC RNK
sounding. Unless the MCS can generate enough of a cold pool to
drive storms into this drier environment, all of the activity may
play out over the Virginias and never make it into North Carolina.

Regardless of the outcome, folks need to remain vigilant, and pay
particular attention to future forecast updates.

It appears the excessive rain threat has been averted. Given fact
that PWATs have fallen below an inch, the rain efficiency of the
thunderstorms will be significantly reduced.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Upper low pressure over central VA with surface low pressure over
eastern NC on Friday morning will drift off the mid Atlantic coast
by Friday evening, placing Blacksburg forecast area in a cooler
northerly flow with wrap-around moisture on the western flanks of
the system during the day. As a result, expect to see plenty of
cloud cover for much of Friday along with an ongoing threat for some
light shower/thundershower activity - with the threat for thunder
primarily focused southwest of Interstate 77 during the time of peak
heating, where some lingering instability will reside.

Other than perhaps a lingering sprinkle/shower into early Friday
evening across extreme southwestern VA into the northwestern NC
mountains, expect good drying and subsidence to ensure a dry
forecast for Friday night through Sunday night as surface high
pressure builds southwest from out of New England into the mid
Atlantic region.

Expect slightly below normal temperatures through the short-term
period with lows mainly in the 50s, and with daytime highs ranging
from mainly 70s in the mountains to around 80 across the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Much of the long-term period is expected to be dry with slowly
warming temperatures as mid Atlantic surface ridge holds into Monday
- with axis of upper ridge extending from near the four-corner area
east toward the mid-Atlantic states.

Old closed upper low is expected to meander off the mid-Atlantic
coast through early next week, but none of the longer-range models
indicate that steering current will be sufficient to enable it to
retrograde far enough west to impact the Blacksburg forecast area.

On Tuesday, a series of short wave trofs moving southeast through
the upper and lower great lakes expected to push a decaying cool
front through the Blacksburg forecast area later Tuesday afternoon
or on Tuesday night. However, this front will be preceded by a
mainly westerly surface flow, so other than a limited threat for
some isolated to scattered shower/thundershower activity across the
western upsloping flanks of the Appalachians, most other sections of
the forecast area will likely remain precipitation free.

Expect a return to dry and slightly cooler weather again following
the passage of the front for Wednesday into Thursday as yet another
surface ridge builds east from the upper into the lower Great
Lake region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

Solid line of thunderstorms is expected to move from West
Virginia into Virginia this evening with the potential for strong
damaging winds. Main threat for storms will be between 6PM and
Midnight with impact to flight routes headed north bound. Storms
are expected to weaken after midnight with lingering showers
persisting over the region through Friday as an upper level low
passes overhead.

Thunderstorms this evening and tonight will likely be accompanied
by MVFR or worse cigs and MVFR or worse vsbys. Lingering showers
and areas of MVFR- IFR cigs/vsbys are likely Friday as the upper
low passes overhead and off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

Extended discussion...

Conditions should return to VFR with good flying conditions
Saturday and continue into early next week as high pressure
builds south behind the departing low.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 8:18 PM EDT, 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
818 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012>017-022-032-033-043-044-058-
059-180030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
818 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT THAT SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ011-018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047-WVZ042>044-507-508-180030-
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
818 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 8:39 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
839 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAZ035-046-047-170145-
BUCKINGHAM-APPOMATTOX-AMHERST-
839 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN APPOMATTOX...CENTRAL AMHERST AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 838 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE MONTICELLO TO NEAR FORKS OF
BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUCKINGHAM...
AMHERST...
DILLWYN...
CLIFFORD...
AND BENT CREEK.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3740 7859 3731 7864
      3768 7934 3781 7923 3781 7914 3778 7907
      3771 7906 3768 7897 3755 7890 3754 7883
      3763 7882 3764 7872 3768 7864 3775 7862
      3776 7851 3780 7849 3775 7844 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 292DEG 44KT 3789 7846 3771 7922

RS

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 8:53 PM EDT, 21 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
853 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAZ007-009-010-012-WVZ042-170145-
TAZEWELL-WYTHE-SMYTH-BLAND-MERCER-
853 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TAZEWELL...NORTHEASTERN
SMYTH...NORTHWESTERN WYTHE...BLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN MERCER
COUNTIES...

AT 852 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
AMONATE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLAND...
RICHLANDS...
BLUEFIELD...
TAZEWELL...
AND CEDAR BLUFF.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3715 8190 3716 8187 3717 8187 3720 8176
      3724 8174 3724 8172 3720 8168 3721 8156
      3724 8151 3726 8150 3725 8148 3727 8145
      3727 8142 3731 8140 3733 8137 3725 8098
      3720 8092 3688 8147 3702 8181 3714 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 312DEG 32KT 3725 8156

JH

Local storm report, Jun 16, 8:57 PM EDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
857 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     LIGHTNING        2 ENE EAGLE ROCK        37.64N 79.77W
06/16/2016                   BOTETOURT          VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A BARN CAUGHT FIRE DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE ON BRIT
            LANE.

&&

HYSELL

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 9:00 PM EDT, 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
900 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAZ018-022-023-034-170200-
CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-BEDFORD-
900 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...CITY OF SALEM...ROANOKE...CITY OF ROANOKE...
SOUTHERN BOTETOURT AND NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 859 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SPRINGWOOD TO NEAR ABBOTT TO NEAR SINKING CREEK...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE...
SALEM...
VINTON...
BEDFORD...
AND BUCHANAN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
THE SALEM FAIRGROUNDS...THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL...AND ROANOKE
REGIONAL AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3735 7936 3720 7978 3723 7978 3722 7985
      3721 7988 3719 7989 3714 7996 3717 8001
      3717 8003 3716 8009 3711 8015 3726 8020
      3734 8026 3744 8025 3759 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 339DEG 20KT 3755 7978 3745 8011 3742 8022

JJM

Local storm report, Jun 16, 9:07 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
907 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N ARCADIA             37.59N 79.63W
06/16/2016                   BOTETOURT          VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLEW DOWN ON TRUCK ON INTERSTATE 81 NEAR MILE MARKER
            173.9

&&

HYSELL

Local storm report, Jun 16, 9:13 PM EDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
913 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N EAGLE ROCK          37.69N 79.81W
06/16/2016                   BOTETOURT          VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN AND BLOCKING BOTETOURT ROAD.

&&

HYSELL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 8:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Tazewell	58 min
Jun 16, 8:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bedford, Campbell	40 min
Jun 16, 8:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Amherst, Buckingham	66 min
Jun 16, 8:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Amherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge	48 min
Jun 16, 8:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Amherst, Appomattox, Buckingham	58 min
Jun 16, 8:53 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bland, Tazewell	52 min
Jun 16, 9:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bedford, Botetourt, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	60 min
Jun 16, 9:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Smyth, Tazewell	58 min
Jun 16, 9:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bland, Giles, Pulaski, Tazewell, Wythe	42 min
Jun 16, 9:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bland, Carroll, Grayson, Pulaski, Smyth, Wythe	51 min
Jun 16, 9:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Floyd, Franklin, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke and 2 more	42 min
Jun 16, 10:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania	60 min
Jun 16, 10:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Grayson, Henry, Patrick, City of Galax, City of Martinsville	53 min
Jun 16, 10:32 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Smyth, Tazewell	4 hr
Jun 16, 10:53 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	City of Danville	67 min
Jun 16, 11:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Grayson	63 min
Jun 16, 11:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Halifax, Pittsylvania, City of Danville	61 min
Jun 16, 11:25 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Grayson, Smyth	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.