Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1010 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous upper level disturbance was centered over northeast Ohio.
This feature will move southeast, crossing the Mid-Atlantic States
tonight and Friday. Thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected
along the leading edge of this disturbance with a risk of severe
weather...the primary focus across the Virginias through early
tonight. Aside for lingering showers Friday, High pressure will
build into the region for the weekend providing fair weather which
will last into the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 261 has expired. Storms will
continue to move east-southeast and may produce strong to severe
wind gusts as they approach the VA/NC border between now and
Midnight. Warnings may still be required until the line weakens.

A Vigorous short wave, compact upper level low, will move from
the OH/PA border this evening, into the Virginias tonight. At the
surface, low pressure was centered near Pittsburgh, PA, with a
cold extending south from the low into eastern West Virginia,
then southwest into southern Kentucky. A Mesoscale Convective
System (MCS), line of strong/severe thunderstorms, was moving
east-southeast out ahead of the cold front. As of 10PM, this line
of storms was along a RIC-FCX-ROA-MKJ line. Farther southwest
along the front (SW of MKJ)...the storm cells were more discrete
with some rotation exhibited.

The MCS will continue to move east-southeast, with models showing
a strong indication that it will go all the way to the coast...in
addition to a slow southward drift toward the VA/NC border. Storms
will likely remain near severe levels between now and Midnight.
After that, loss of solar heating should allow southwest part of
the line to weaken. Until that time, damaging straight line winds
will be the primary threat, but certainly can't rule out an
isolated tornado per backing low level winds on the east side of
the Appalachians which will result in increasing directional
shear.

Attm do not anticipate a severe thunderstorm watch farther south
into North Carolina unless activity does not weaken as forecast.
However...storms will likely remain strong to severe all the way
to the VA/NC border.

The evening RNK UA sounding has recovered in terms of PWATS.
Values have increased to around 1.30 with CAPE running around 2000
J/KG and a 0-3km storm relative helicity of 292. The GSO sounding
was still well mixed, the remnant dry airmass from earlier in the
day still evident...CAPE of around 300 J/KG. DCAPE on the
other-hand was near 1400, so as the storm activity moves off the
Blue Ridge and into the piedmont, a gust from may still kick-out
from underneath the existing MCS and produce a surge of sub-severe
(30-40 mph) wind that could impact parts of the northwest
piedmont of NC, and associated with little or no rainfall.

Regardless of the above thoughts, folks need to remain vigilant,
and pay particular attention to future forecast updates and listen
for warnings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Upper low pressure over central VA with surface low pressure over
eastern NC on Friday morning will drift off the mid Atlantic coast
by Friday evening, placing Blacksburg forecast area in a cooler
northerly flow with wrap-around moisture on the western flanks of
the system during the day. As a result, expect to see plenty of
cloud cover for much of Friday along with an ongoing threat for some
light shower/thundershower activity - with the threat for thunder
primarily focused southwest of Interstate 77 during the time of peak
heating, where some lingering instability will reside.

Other than perhaps a lingering sprinkle/shower into early Friday
evening across extreme southwestern VA into the northwestern NC
mountains, expect good drying and subsidence to ensure a dry
forecast for Friday night through Sunday night as surface high
pressure builds southwest from out of New England into the mid
Atlantic region.

Expect slightly below normal temperatures through the short-term
period with lows mainly in the 50s, and with daytime highs ranging
from mainly 70s in the mountains to around 80 across the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Much of the long-term period is expected to be dry with slowly
warming temperatures as mid Atlantic surface ridge holds into Monday
- with axis of upper ridge extending from near the four-corner area
east toward the mid-Atlantic states.

Old closed upper low is expected to meander off the mid-Atlantic
coast through early next week, but none of the longer-range models
indicate that steering current will be sufficient to enable it to
retrograde far enough west to impact the Blacksburg forecast area.

On Tuesday, a series of short wave trofs moving southeast through
the upper and lower great lakes expected to push a decaying cool
front through the Blacksburg forecast area later Tuesday afternoon
or on Tuesday night. However, this front will be preceded by a
mainly westerly surface flow, so other than a limited threat for
some isolated to scattered shower/thundershower activity across the
western upsloping flanks of the Appalachians, most other sections of
the forecast area will likely remain precipitation free.

Expect a return to dry and slightly cooler weather again following
the passage of the front for Wednesday into Thursday as yet another
surface ridge builds east from the upper into the lower Great
Lake region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 900 PM EDT Thursday...

Solid line of thunderstorms is moving through VA. at 9PM these
storms were along an RIC-LYH-ROA-BLF line. This line is expected
to sink east-southeast to along the VA/NC border before weakening
between now and 06Z/2AM. Gust front along the leading edge of
these storms is producing wind damage with surface gusts of
30-60kts.

After 06z/2am...there will be lingering showers, but overall
coverage will be significantly reduced. These showers will linger
through the day friday as an upper level low passes overhead.

Clearing will take place Friday night with a return to VFR for the
weekend.

Extended discussion...

Conditions will return to VFR with good flying conditions
Saturday and continue into early next week as high pressure builds
south behind the departing low.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1014 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012-015>017-032-033-043>045-058-059-180215-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-WYTHE-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1014 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-010-011-013-014-018>020-022>024-034-035-046-047-WVZ042>044-
507-508-180215-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
1014 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
956 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE FOREST            37.38N 79.23W
06/16/2016                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN ON BREEZEWOOD DRIVE.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW BENT CREEK         37.56N 78.86W
06/16/2016  M77.00 MPH       NELSON             VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 76.7 MPH IN GLADESTONE

0943 PM     HAIL             SSW RICHLANDS           37.09N 81.80W
06/16/2016  M0.50 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL IN RICHLANDS

&&

RSTONEFI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1018 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W EVINGTON              37.23N 79.29W
06/16/2016                   CAMPBELL           VA   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

RSTONEFI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE BENT CREEK         37.55N 78.81W
06/16/2016  M77.00 MPH       BUCKINGHAM         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 76.7 MPH IN GLADESTONE

&&

RSTONEFI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1052 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE FOREST            37.39N 79.23W
06/16/2016                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON BREEZEWOOD DRIVE.

0952 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE FOREST            37.38N 79.22W
06/16/2016                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON GRAVES MILL ROAD.

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE FOREST            37.34N 79.21W
06/16/2016                   CAMPBELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF WEXFORD AND
            LEEVILLE ROAD.

1011 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE FOREST            37.34N 79.23W
06/16/2016                   CAMPBELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF GREENVIEW AND
            PORTICO STREET.

&&

RSTONEFI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1053 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAZ044-058-059-170400-
CHARLOTTE-HALIFAX-PITTSYLVANIA-
1053 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTH CENTRAL CHARLOTTE...SOUTHERN PITTSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN HALIFAX
AND CITY OF DANVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 1053 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CRYSTAL HILL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...
SOUTH BOSTON...
HALIFAX...
BLAIRS...
AND REDOAK.

THIS INCLUDES DANVILLE AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3670 7865 3666 7861 3668 7864 3669 7865
      3668 7870 3654 7873 3654 7971 3679 7966
      3675 7893 3680 7858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 299DEG 58KT 3681 7887

JJM