Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Blacksburg, VA

626 
WWUS51 KRNK 021955
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

VAC071-WVC063-022015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160502T2015Z/
GILES VA-MONROE WV-
355 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL GILES AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PETERSTOWN...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARISBURG...
NARROWS...
PETERSTOWN...
RICH CREEK...
AND INTERIOR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR YOUR
SAFETY...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 8057 3733 8083 3743 8082 3750 8060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 254DEG 28KT 3738 8077 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

18Z RNK SOUNDINGS AVAILABLE FOR VIEWING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS A FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH HEAVY RAINS AND ANY TRAINING OF STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES DRAPED ATOP THE FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND...ALL EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT
BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1000-2000
J/KG MLCAPE AND MODEST /6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 500MB
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING TOWARD -20C THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS RELATIVELY LOW. DCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH
NEAR 1000 EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING
THE WIND THREAT.

SHAPED THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS A BLEND OF
NAM AND HRRR. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  FRONTAL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATE
WENDESDAY...TEMPERATURES FAVOR EARLY MAY NORMALS.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SIGNIFICANT TUMBLE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  85H TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A
DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

CUTOFF WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.  THE WEEKEND WILL BE
OUR TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS SO LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO BE
THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS BUT STILL RESEMBLING SOMETHING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE...THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND REGIONWIDE FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE
UPPER LOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS MOUNT ROGERS...MAY EVEN TOY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. FOR THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A POP-UP SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  SINCE POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...REMOVED SHOWER THREAT
FOR ALL BUT THE WV HIGHLANDS. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER FRONTAL
ENCROACHMENT MONDAY, SO MAINTAINED CHANCE THREAT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED AS SLOW MOVING FRONT
COMBINES WITH UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER LOW.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PRECIPITATION AREA.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN THE WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW-W
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS PASS WITH SOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BEHIND CONVECTION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS...VSBYS...AND WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL IMPROVE MVFR CONDITION TO VFR CONDITIONS. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK. OVERALL...FLYING
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR FOR LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
306 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-031915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
306 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ507-508-031915-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
306 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
322 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             4 E BEECH MOUNTAIN      36.22N 81.82W
05/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       WATAUGA            NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             3 SE MOUTH OF WILSON    36.55N 81.30W
05/02/2016  E0.25 INCH       ALLEGHANY          NC   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL AT PINEY CREEK GENERAL STORE

&&

JMORROW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ002-003-019-022000-
WILKES-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-
334 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL SURRY...NORTH
CENTRAL WILKES AND EASTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 334 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER STONE MOUNTAIN STATE
PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ENNICE...
ABSHERS...
STONE MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
ROARING GAP...
AND DOUGHTON PARK.

LAT...LON 3634 8112 3642 8119 3656 8099 3646 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 234DEG 21KT 3639 8110

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             GRETNA                  36.95N 79.37W
05/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       PITTSYLVANIA       VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED FROM WDBJ7

&&

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
336 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

VAZ012-013-022000-
WYTHE-PULASKI-
336 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI AND EAST CENTRAL WYTHE COUNTIES...

AT 336 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER PATTERSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUBLIN...
ALLISONIA...
PATTERSON...
CLAYTOR LAKE STATE PARK...
AND DRAPER.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR CLAYTOR LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3710 8066 3700 8055 3699 8054 3697 8055
      3697 8056 3696 8057 3685 8083 3691 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 234DEG 21KT 3690 8081

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             3 E INDIAN VALLEY       36.92N 80.50W
05/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       FLOYD              VA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER NEAR THE
            CITY OF WILLIS IN FLOYD COUNTY, VIRGINIA.

&&

JMORROW