Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

18Z RNK SOUNDINGS AVAILABLE FOR VIEWING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS A FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH HEAVY RAINS AND ANY TRAINING OF STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES DRAPED ATOP THE FRONT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND...ALL EMANATING FROM A PERSISTENT
BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1000-2000
J/KG MLCAPE AND MODEST /6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 500MB
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING TOWARD -20C THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS RELATIVELY LOW. DCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH
NEAR 1000 EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING
THE WIND THREAT.

SHAPED THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS A BLEND OF
NAM AND HRRR. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  FRONTAL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATE
WENDESDAY...TEMPERATURES FAVOR EARLY MAY NORMALS.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SIGNIFICANT TUMBLE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  85H TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A
DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

CUTOFF WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.  THE WEEKEND WILL BE
OUR TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS SO LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO BE
THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS BUT STILL RESEMBLING SOMETHING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE...THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND REGIONWIDE FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE
UPPER LOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS MOUNT ROGERS...MAY EVEN TOY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. FOR THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A POP-UP SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  SINCE POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...REMOVED SHOWER THREAT
FOR ALL BUT THE WV HIGHLANDS. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER FRONTAL
ENCROACHMENT MONDAY, SO MAINTAINED CHANCE THREAT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED AS SLOW MOVING FRONT
COMBINES WITH UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER LOW.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PRECIPITATION AREA.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN THE WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW-W
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS PASS WITH SOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT BEHIND CONVECTION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS...VSBYS...AND WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL IMPROVE MVFR CONDITION TO VFR CONDITIONS. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK. OVERALL...FLYING
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR FOR LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
306 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-031915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
306 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ507-508-031915-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
306 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
632 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ003-004-VAZ032-022330-
SURRY-STOKES-PATRICK-
632 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SURRY...NORTHERN STOKES
AND SOUTHERN PATRICK COUNTIES...

AT 632 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER DOBSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT AIRY...
FAIRVIEW...
FLAT ROCK...
DOBSON...
AND PILOT MOUNTAIN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3627 8072 3646 8082 3656 8067 3656 8061
      3659 8062 3664 8054 3665 8049 3670 8046
      3674 8039 3654 8003 3652 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 244DEG 26KT 3643 8069

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             5 SSW FORKS OF BUFFALO  37.63N 79.23W
05/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       AMHERST            VA   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE

&&

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
636 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ001-022300-
ASHE-
636 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ASHE COUNTY...

AT 636 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MOUNTAIN CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHLAND...
FLATWOOD...
SHATLEY SPRINGS...
AND NELLA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3643 8172 3646 8171 3647 8170 3651 8170
      3653 8171 3656 8169 3657 8169 3657 8168
      3659 8168 3658 8150 3656 8142 3639 8172
      3640 8174 3641 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 227DEG 22KT 3646 8174

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
641 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLAIRS                  36.68N 79.38W
05/02/2016                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG MALMAISON RD IN BLAIRS.

&&

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
646 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KING                    36.28N 80.36W
05/02/2016                   STOKES             NC   PUBLIC

            TWO TREES DOWN IN KING

&&

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

VAZ018>020-022>024-022315-
CRAIG-ROCKBRIDGE-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ALLEGHANY-
649 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...SOUTHWESTERN BATH...NORTHWESTERN ROANOKE...WEST
CENTRAL ROCKBRIDGE...BOTETOURT AND EASTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 649 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM INGALLS FIELD TO NEAR ORISKANY TO ABBOTT...AND MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLIFTON FORGE...
TROUTVILLE...
NEW CASTLE...
EAGLE ROCK...
AND CATAWBA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3797 7959 3763 7964 3734 7997 3736 8031
      3765 7998 3800 7991
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 275DEG 20KT 3793 7984 3765 7990 3741 8017

DS